George W. Bush is a product of the Wild West myth. He sees himself as the fast-drawingsheriff who kills the bad guys and maintains order in town.
But in fact he is much more like another stock figure of the Westerns: the top-hattedvendor of the patent medicine which heals everything: tooth-ache and belly-ache, choleraand impotence, gunshot wounds and heart attacks.
Bush’s patent medicine is called “democracy”. Democracy will heal all the diseases ofthe Middle East and the entire world. If only the Muslim nations would buy his little flask, allproblems would be solved, and foremost among them the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Andsince Israel is already an exemplary democracy, led by that great democrat, Ariel Sharon , allthat is needed now is to impose democracy on the Palestinians. This means free elections forpresident and parliament.
A person with limited intellectual capacity needs simple solutions. A one-dimensional solution that does not demand delving into the complexities of other societiesand civilizations. What’s good for his little Texan town must be good for Baghdad and Gaza ,too.
Since winning reelection, his self-confidence has shot sky high. He has kicked out thehapless Colin Powell and put a certified yeswoman in charge of the State Department. From nowon, nobody will question his decisions anymore. Not even if he appoints his horse ChiefJustice.
So who is worried? Of all people, Ariel Sharon, his great friend, teacher and guide.
As fate would have it, Bush achieved his great victory one day before the sudden,mysterious breakdown of Yasser Arafat’s health. Sharon ’s alibi was buried in Ramallah.
Successive Israeli governments have presented Arafat as a monster and used hismonstrosity as a pretext for undermining any attempt to impose peace upon them. Peace meanswithdrawing to the pre-1967 border, more or less, and dismantling the settlements. Peacemeans giving up East Jerusalem , more than half of the “eternal capital of Israel ”. God forbid!
The demonization of Arafat helped avoid this. After all, one cannot make peace with amonster. Even Bush understood that. Therefore he helped Sharon prevent elections for thePalestinian Authority, in which Arafat was certain to be reelected by a landslide.
But now Arafat is not there, and Bush is. Sharon is very troubled. And rightly so.
For four years, the mantra in Washington has been: Fighting International Terrorism.That suited Sharon fine, since he was riding on the “fight terrorism” horse anyhow.
For the next four years, the new mantra in Washington may well be: Democracy for the MiddleEast . That will suit Abu-Mazen, who is riding the democracy horse.
Abu-Mazen has been chosen as Chairman of the PLO. Abu-Mazen wears a business suit, not auniform. He wears a tie, not a kuffieh. He looks like an ordinary democratic leader. He is knownfor his opposition to the suicide bombings in Israel . Contrary to all Israeli predictions,the Palestinian transfer of power has taken place in an orderly manner, much as in anycivilized country. Within two months, new elections are to take place.
That puts Sharon on the spot. He cannot object to elections, since they are the apple ofBush’s eye. He must not raise the slightest suspicion that he is undermining them. Anycomplaint about the Israeli army hindering elections by incursions, roadblocks and“targeted assassinations” may arouse the ire of the White House.
Sharon is hoping that the Palestinians will sabotage their elections themselves. Armedfactions may disturb the orderly process. Last week there was shooting during Abu-Mazen’svisit to Gaza – which caused an outburst of joy and glee in Israel . But the incident passed, allPalestinian factions are showing restraint and the people are unified in their desire forpeaceful elections.
For Sharon this is a nightmare. The way it looks now, elections will indeed take place,with several candidates standing – and Abu-Mazen will be elected president.
For Bush that will be a great achievement: the first Arab democracy will be on its way.Even if anarchy reigns in Iraq , Palestine will prove that his vision is coming true. Bush willembrace Abu-Mazen. The way to a “free Palestinian state” within four years will be open.
For Sharon , there is no greater danger. His plan – to annex 58% of the West Bank to Israel –will be struck from the agenda. He will be requested to dismantle most of the settlements, andbefore that to freeze all of them.
Worse: the intimate, exclusive relationship with Bush will be upset. The couple willbecome a triangle, and three is a crowd. Already Condoleezza is about to meet Abu-Mazen.
So what can be done? Clearly, Abu-Mazen has to be destroyed before he gets the chance toput down roots. But it is also clear that Sharon cannot conduct any overt act against him. Astrategy of indirect approach is indicated.
Even before Arafat returned his soul to his maker, Sharon declared that there will be nonegotiations with his successors until after they “put an end to terrorism”. He hoped that themagic word “terrorism” would make Bush jump. And since even Arafat, with all his toweringauthority, did not disarm Hamas and Jihad, there is not the slightest chance that Abu-Mazencould do it.
The Americans did not fall into this primitive trap, and so Sharon decided to be a littlemore sophisticated. This week he announced that he will not speak with Abu-Mazen unless heimmediately stops the “incitement” against Israel in all Palestinian media and schools.
Abu-Mazen might just as well be requested to pluck the moon from the heavens. How could thenew democratic chairman abolish freedom of speech on TV and in the press – while incitementagainst the Palestinians continues in the Israeli media at full blast, not to mention theirdancing on Arafat’s grave? And how does one change the schoolbooks (most of them Egyptian andJordanian in any case) within two months – while in Israeli schools, especially the religiousones, both orally and in writing, the right of the Palestinian people to their country istotally denied?
The presentation of impossible demands as a pre-condition to negotiations is an oldtrick of Sharon ’s. One may assume that the Americans will not fall into this trap again.Something more extreme and immediate must happen. For example: bloody attacks, acts of“terrorism” that can be attributed to the new chairman, civil war, anarchy.
Abu-Mazen and his colleagues know this full well. They are working to prevent this. Sincethey lack the means to apply force, they must use persuasion. The traditional Arab method is“Ijmah” – a round of discussions that goes on until everybody is persuaded, so that no minoritywill feel that it has been vanquished by a majority. Arafat was a past master of this.
If this succeeds, there will be a temporary cease-fire until the elections. But the mainproblem will remain: the new Chairman will be unable to persuade his people to end the armedintifada if he cannot show another way of ending the occupation and achieving Palestinianindependence. If the Americans want the new regime to take hold, they must bring about theimmediate start of negotiations, with the clear aim of establishing the State of Palestinewithin a strict timetable.
Sharon will do everything he can to destroy Abu-Mazen before this happens. Hewrecked the first Abu-Mazen government, two years ago, by withholding anything which mightcontribute to political progress (blaming, as usual, Arafat). Now he must wreck Abu-Mazenunder much more difficult circumstances.
Let no one have any illusions: Sharon will use every means, overt and covert, in order todestroy any “moderate” Palestinian leadership. His natural ally is Hamas, which opposes anynegotiations with Israel . As of now, Abu-Mazen is Enemy No. 1.