Why did COVID-19 raise the The Two-State Index?
From Two-State IndexTSI@genevainitiative.org
Israeli-Palestinian cooperation rises to meet threat of COVID-19: Effect ofthe global pandemic on Israeli and Palestinian societies leads both sides towork together against a common enemy, and enables an unprecedented Israelidecision to allow PA security forces to enter East Jerusalem and Area CCOVID-19 crisis freezes push for West Bank annexation: The Israeligovernment’s fight against the spread of the virus, along with the politicalstalemate, curtail efforts to annex parts of the West Bank in the near termGaza and the West Bank see dramatic drop in violence as PA initiatesassistance measures: COVID-19 crisis pushes Israel and Palestinian factionsto almost entirely halt all attacks, while Hamas and the PalestinianAuthority take new steps to combat the virusNew evidence and activity related to settlement expansion: Among otherfindings, a new report shows that settlement approvals soared in 2019, andmore action is taken by Israel to allow for building in E1These events raised the Two-State Index (TSI) by 3.9% (up by 0.2 points from5.01 in the previous month).
Along with the rest of the world, Israelis and Palestinians aresimultaneously suffering from the coronavirus pandemic and its widespreadeffect on all levels of society. Along with the drastic measures taken byIsrael, the Palestinian Authority, and Hamas to keep citizens isolated, anumber of collaborative actions were initiated. Israeli and PA officials meton March 5th to discuss coordination of steps to curb the spread of thevirus, leading to the establishment of a joint communications mechanism. Ledby the Israeli Coordinator of Government Activities in the Territories(COGAT) and the Palestinian Civil Affairs Department, this mechanismincludes a joint operations room to allow for immediate updates to bothsides on all matters relating to the COVID-19 crisis.
Ofer Zalzberg, MENA Senior Analyst at Crisis Group, said that Israelisecurity officials believe it is in their “strong interest” to prevent thespread of the virus in the West Bank, “because even if it is eradicated inIsrael, then a second wave could come” across the border to Israel. Inconjunction with the PA, Israel closed off all border crossings forPalestinians from the West Bank on March 18th, with some 47,000 Palestinianworkers ultimately choosing the option of remaining in Israel for up to twomonths. On March 23rd, it was revealed that NIS 120 million ($33.5 million)in clearance funds – taxes collected from Palestinians that are partiallywithheld by Israel – were transferred to the PA as an emergency measure.Subsequently, 3,000 coronavirus test-kits and 50,000 masks, donated by theWorld Health Organization, were delivered to the PA`s health system in amove coordinated by COGAT.
On March 30th, UN Special Coordinator for the Middle East Peace ProcessNikolay Mladenov praised “the far-reaching measures that both Israel and thePalestinian Authority have taken” to combat the coronavirus. Underscoringthe new spirit of collaboration, a poll released on March 24th by thePalestinian Center for Public Opinion and Gallup International found thatover 68% of Palestinians support cooperation with Israel in order to preventthe spread of COVID-19. According to a Ramallah-based senior journalist, PAcooperation with Israel has become “a national demand” among Palestinians.“There`s a psychological element,” he said. “For the first time, the twosides are facing the same enemy, and Palestinians view Israelis as partnersagainst this enemy. It’s led to reduced animosity, and it may have someimpact [on Israeli-Palestinian relations] in the long run.”
The crisis has also revealed to Israelis some of the benefits of a potentialtwo-state outcome. It has provided a new clarification of the benefits ofthe existence of the PA and the framework for Palestinian governanceestablished by the Oslo Accords, and how the weight of this responsibilityon Israel’s shoulders would otherwise be overwhelming. With the PA runningits own internal security, healthcare services, and other matters in theWest Bank, the Israeli government has been free to keep its effortsprimarily focused inside the Green Line.
Professor Gilad Hirschberger, a social psychologist at IDC-Herzliya,outlined how “the unique circumstances of the global pandemic make Israeliand Palestinian public health intertwined. Neither population can be safe ifthe health of the other is compromised.” Reflecting on this new reality,Nidal Foqaha, Director-General of the Palestinian Peace Coalition-GenevaInitiative, expressed his belief that the joint response to the crisis “willcontribute to changing the paradigm for the future … [this] pandemic sent aclear message to both Israelis and Palestinians that the issue ofcooperation and coordination, and arranging or dealing with such situationsjointly, is a must.`
The increased level of Israeli-PA cooperation moved the Securitycoordination parameter from to 8 to 9. The Palestinian public opinion andcivil society parameters both increased from 4 to 5.
No new moves towards annexation amid COVID-19 crisis
With all parts of the Israeli government either focused on or affected bythe coronavirus crisis, the march towards annexing parts of the West Bankstalled in March, even as the US-Israeli mapping team continued its work.However, the imminent unity government of Netanyahu and Benny Gantz, whosemakeup is currently being negotiated, has yet to agree on a formularegarding the possibility of future annexation.
On March 30th, Israeli organizations that comprise the Two State Coalition,including the Geneva Initiative, sent a letter to Gantz and Labor leaderAmir Peretz stressing that “annexation of settlements must be a red linethat if crossed cannot allow for those who support peace and Israel as aJewish and democratic state to remain in the government.” The signatoriesurged both leaders “to stop any annexation plans and to assure that in thenext government`s basic agreements there will be no unilateral annexation ofsettlements and territory in the West Bank.”
Although it is clear that practical steps toward annexation are currentlybeing postponed, once the COVID-19 crisis abates, domestic politicalconsiderations for both Netanyahu and President Trump may lead either leaderto use this issue to bolster and consolidate support.
For now, these developments have moved the parameter relevant to annexation(Israeli law in the West Bank) from 4 to 5.
There was an almost complete cessation of violence in Gaza during March, asboth Israel and Hamas took measures to contain the spread of thecoronavirus. While one rocket was fired from the Strip on both March 6th and27th, with Israel launching limited airstrikes in response, there were noother attacks of any kind, marking a significant de-escalation from previousmonths. Furthermore, Hamas and other Palestinian groups cancelled a plannedmarch to commemorate the Palestinian national holiday of Land Day, anddirected its efforts and resources toward the construction and preparationof buildings to be used as quarantine centers.
Meanwhile, the PA took a number of measures to assist Palestinians in Gaza,including the distribution of foreign aid, medicine, and medical equipment.For the first time, the PA lifted an economic sanction imposed on Gaza,cancelling the forced retirement of PA civil servants enforced in 2017.These steps may be the beginning of an increase in collaboration between thePA and Hamas to fight the spread and effect of the virus, which may improveprospects and support for reconciliation.
For now, all parameters related to reconciliation have remained in place.With violence having subsided due solely to the COVID-19 crisis, a matterunrelated to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, the relevant parametersremained the same as well.
A new report released by Peace Now on March 18th showed that, despite aslight decline in settlement construction starts in 2019, the rate ofapprovals for construction plans in the West Bank rose dramatically. Israeladvanced plans for 8,457 housing units in 2019, up from 5,618 in 2018.Approximately 63% of the new construction in 2019 was found to be insettlements east of the border proposed in the Geneva Accord. Moreover, thereport revealed that 10% of construction occurred in illegal settlementoutposts, and that 11 new outposts were established in 2019, all of themeast of the Geneva Accord’s proposed border.
The report came in the wake of another significant step taken to expandsettlements by Defense Minister Naftali Bennett, who on March 9th orderedthe paving of a highway that would remove all Palestinian traffic from theE1 area of Ma’aleh Adumim. This followed Netanyahu’s authorization inFebruary to advance plans for 3,500 new housing units in E1, wheresettlement construction would cut off East Jerusalem from its West Bankenvirons and prevent the contiguity of a future Palestinian state.
With the new illegal outposts having been established as agriculture farms,the relevant parameter shifted from 6 to 5. All other relevant parametersremained the same for now.
Continued and stronger Israeli-Palestinian cooperation to fight the spreadof COVID-19, in both the West Bank and GazaPotential shifts in the public discourse among both Israelis andPalestinians on who is to blame for the crisisThe agenda of the new Israeli government on issues related to annexation,settlement expansion, and that of new ministers in key portfolios, such asthe Ministry of Defense
The Two-State Index (TSI) is brought to you by the Geneva Initiative, aPalestinian-Israeli organization working to promote a negotiated peaceagreement in the spirit of the two-state vision. The TSI is produced by anIsraeli-Palestinian team, and reflects a unique bilateral perspective.
It’s Not the Virus That’s Murdering Women
From the beginning of 2020, these women were killed: Zamzam Mahaid of Um El Fahm. She was shot twenty times. Nasrin Jabara of Taibe was killed with six shots. Hadija Abu Sabit of Arara in the Negev was killed by strangling.It is not the corona virus that is killing us. Dozens of attempted murders, stabbings and acts of strangling, physical violence and threats of murder – all of these are floating through our cities and towns. All the while, the world has its eyes turned to the corona infections and the next war. It is right now that women are in a life-or-death struggle against the violence and repression they face every day. We look the other way, allowing the blood of women to flow in the streets.
The pandemic has all of us closed up in our houses and in many families that means the lives of women and girls have become an intolerable hell, the pressures they must face both psychological and financial.The difficult times the world is facing today place an especially heavy burden on women, who are literally paying, in too many cases, with their lives.That is why we – feminist activists from all over the country – have chosen to continue the struggle against all forms of violence and repression, our march to freedom. We’ll do it from our workplaces, our streets – and from our homes!The current emergency will not prevent us from demonstrating, from denouncing and rising up against chauvinism, crime and the glut of weapons, especially now, in light of the incitement we are facing against our work to aid and promote women.We are holding on to life – we deserve to live!
You are all invited to join us: Women and men, young and old, office-holders and activists, academics, artists and members of the media. We will be holding a digital demonstration, Sunday, 22/03/2020, at five, pm.
To help:Share this page on all your social media accounts.Put aside a protective mask (further instructions to follow).Prepare a sentence you would use on your protest sign for the event.Get ready to change your cover photo and profile.On Sunday at five, we’ll have a live event, with slogans and signs, at our doors, porches and windows