Like Rabin, Ehud Barak is a man of logic. And, like Rabin, he lacks political intuition. UnlikeClinton, unlike Begin.
Immediately after the death of Assad, he could have appeared live on television, paid hisrespects to a great opponent, in spite of differences of opinion and conveyed his good wishesto his successor. That would not have cost him anything, even in domestic terms, and would havebeen a good investment for the future.
Instead, some blurred message was published in the name of “a source in the Prime Minister’soffice”, as if it concerned another tiresome quarrel between Shass and Meretz.
Even Shimon Peres, who holds the patent of the “New Middle East”, missed the opportunity. In aTV interview, he denounced the dead president and showered him with criticism. Suddenly heforgot that he is now an International Statesman and turned into another shallow TVcommentator. Like most of the other commentators, he lacks elementary knowledge of Syrianaffairs. (After all these years, he mispronounces the name of Assad,” “lion” in Arabic,calling him Assaad.)
The basic problem of Syria is its divisiveness. Ancient enmities exist between Damascus inthe south and Aleppo in the north, as well as between the other towns, who are separated fromeach other by wide, nearly empty spaces. Religion is splitting the nation between Sunnis,Alawites (perhaps Muslims, perhaps not), Druses, Greek-Orthodox and others. The Syriansknow that they need an authoritative leader to hold the lot together.
The Bible tells us that the Israelites, at the time a loose federation of tribes, decided tohave a king. Because of the animosity between the larger tribes, they chose a man from thesmallest family of the smallest tribe: Saul. The Syrians chose a man from a remote villagebelonging to a small minority: Assad. He preserved the unity of Syria with great success andbrutality. Now they hope that his son, too, will succeed in this task, if by less brutal means..
Syria is torn between a glorious past and a pitiful present. In the past, al-Sham (GreaterSyria) was the dominant factor in the Arab world. The dream of a Great Syria influences itspolicy even today, in spite of the pan-Arab ideology of the ruling Ba’ath party. In Syrianeyes, Lebanon is not abroad, but a part of Syria torn from it by foreign colonial masters. Thesame goes for Palestine – and therefore Assad never forgave Arafat, who had the impertinenceof refusing Syrian guardianship and orders. All Palestinian leaders, including Arafat,have seen Syrian prisons from the inside.
Unlike divided Syria, which – after years of political anarchy preferred a unifyingdictatorship, divided Lebanon always hovers on the brink of civil war. Except someunrealistic intellectuals, all Lebanese know that if the Syrian army would leave Lebanon,the traditional mutual massacre would start all over again. Therefore, Lebanon will remain aSyrian protektorat.
One of our blubbering politicians, beloved by television, said that if Barak had made peacewith Assad, the agreement would now have been torn to pieces. That is utter nonsense. Mubarrakupholds the peace of Sadat, Abdallah upholds the peace of Hussein, Muhammad of Moroccoupholds the relationship created by his father Hassan. If Assad Sr. had signed a peaceagreement, it would have been easy for Assad Jr. to implement it. Now this will be difficult toachieve. Because of the grotesque quarrel about ten meters on the shore of the Sea of Tiberias,a historic opportunity has been missed – much to the delight of the Golan settlers.
The competition between Assad and Arafat, strong opponents of equal age, has now come to anend, and likewise the competition between the “Syrian track” and the “Palestinian track”.Arafat has been freed from the threat of the “refusal organizations”, some of them terrorist,who were used by Assad in order to prevent Arafat from making peace before him. Arafat can actnow for purely Palestinian interests. This is an opportunity for Barak to make an honorablepeace with the Palestinians. If he persists in his efforts to dictate impossible terms, hewill miss this one, too.
Please remember: After the death of the Lion of Damascus, Yasser Arafat is now the seniorstatesman in the Arab world and the whole region. He was already a leader of world-widestanding when Bashar al-Assad was born. His word will carry now additional weight in all Arabcouncils.