A Polish curse: “May they pull out all your teeth and leave just one, so it can hurt!” Some peoplewant to act according to this curse — against ourselves.
They propose to pull out all our military outposts in Lebanon, but leace some of them inLebanese territory. Wherever we have “moved” the in international border, let’s leave themoved border where it is. Meaning: let’s leave a little bit of occupation on a little bit ofterritory. Just one aching tooth.
Going back in time: In 1985 the government was compelled to pull the army out of Lebanon. ArielSharon had succeeded to arouse the sleeping Shi’ite lion, who had served as a doormat forcenturies. Thereupon the Shi’ite fanatics hit us so hard that we had to get out.
But we could not leave just like that, with our tail between the legs, without some trick. Notwe. Therefore the government — led by Shimon Peres — decided to stay in a narrow zone in theaccursed country. Everybody applauded. What a wise decision!
I warned against this decision and found myself alone. Under the headline “To leave but tostay” (Ha’olam Hazeh, 16.1.85) I wrote: “A withdrawal to a new line in Lebanon will not put anend to the war. On the contrary, it will intensify it.” And a month later, during the actualwithdrawal, I wrote: “Partial withdrawal, total folly.”
The Hebrew proverb says: “What the brain does not do, time will do.” Well, not necessarily. Nowthey want to get out of the “security zone” too. But the wise guys want to trick again: to leavenearly completely, to stay just a tiny little bit. Here an outpost, there half an outpost. Thusthey will provide the Hizbullah with a pretext for going on with the war. The world willunderstand. The Lebanese government will be compelled to agree. Assad will rub his hands. TheShi’ite population will continue to sacrifice itself for the liberation of its country. Andin the end, after many more casualties (this time, civilians too) Israel will leave. Like itleft Taba, which also was an aching tooth.
If Barak will understand that in time and retreat completely to the international border, whowill occupy the land on the other side? The Lebanese defense minister proposed to turn theterritory over to the Syrian army. In Israel, the reaction was histerical. God forbid! Wecannot allow the Syrian to be on the border! Things did not quite down until the Syrian foreignminister expressed his absolute opposition to the whole idea. In Israel, nobody asked: Why?Why don’t the Syrians want to be on the border?
We have been there before. In 1976, at the height of the Lebanese civil war, the Syrian armyentered Lebanon at the behest of the Christians, in order to prevent the victorious PLO forcesto take over the country. When the Syrians moved south, hysteria broke out in Israel.Orchestrated by defense minister Shimon Peres, in order to embarrass his opponent, primeminister Yitzhaq Rabin, , his minions drea a “red line” and cried: “We cannot allow the Syriansto go beyond it!”
I happened to talk with Rabin at the height of that crisis. Obviously he trusted me not topublish his utterances. He was bitter. “What stupidity!” he exclaimed, “The best that canhappen is for the Syrians to sit on the border. Then everything will be quite, like the Golanborder.”
But Rabin surrendered to the histeria. Israel published an ultimatum. The next chapter iswell known: The vacuum was filled by the Palestinians, Soth Lebanon became a PLO mini-state.
Now the same happens again.If Israel retreats completely to the international border, theHizbullah will probably turn into a political-social force and turn its attention to fightfor power in Lebanon. Ythe Syrians will not occupy the land, because they understand Rabin’slogic: If they wii be on the border, they will be compelled to keep quite. But the Syrians have nointerest in a quite border, not until the Golan is returned to them. Not at all. They will lookfor a substitute for Hizbullah and find it in the Palestinian organizations led fromDamascus.
Thus a new Palestinian mini-state will come into being in South Lebanon, subservient to Assadand hostile to Arafat and his peace policy. It will start a guerilla against the Galilee.Perhaps some day about Barak’s advisors what used to be said about the advisors of Louis XVIII:”They have forgotten nothing and learnt nothing.”