“Do you want to understand Jordan?” I was asked by the senior official. “Iwill teach you all there is to know in five minutes!” And indeed, in thefollowing five minutes I learned more than from dozens of books andhundreds of articles, including articles by some of our own “experts,”civilian and military, who know so much and understand so little.
This took place 13 years ago. I was the first person registered in Jordanas Israeli. The background: A European diplomat had told me that the headof the king’s court had invited me to come to Amman. Prime MinisterShimon Peres granted me an official permit, imprinted in my passport. Iarrived in Amman from Cairo, and during the flight, I had an opportunityto converse with Abu-Jihad, who happened to be on the same plane. I spentthe following week sitting in the lobby of a central hotel in Amman,meeting with various officials and giving numerous interviews to local andinternational newspapers, while waiting for the invitation for a meetingwith the king or with his brother, the Crown Prince. The invitationwouldn’t come, and the senior official invited me to dinner, apparently asa consolation prize. (In the meantime, amid rumors that I had come as anunofficial emissary from the Israeli Prime Minister, the king decided thatmy presence in Amman was becoming an embarrassment, and thus, after oneweek, I was politely asked to leave the kingdom at my earliestconvenience, namely NOW.)
To go back to the conversation: We were sitting in an elegant Frenchrestaurant in the heart of Amman. My companion — a Beduin, like all theleadership of the Jordan regime — took a paper napkin and drew the map ofJordan on it.
“Look at our borders,” he explained, while moving his finger around thenapkin-map. “To the north we have a border with Syria, a secular,nationalistic and Pan-Arab state. To the south, it is Saudi-Arabia, aconservative and religious kingdom, straight out of the Middle Ages.Across from it, the Gulf emirates, run by backward Sheiks. To the east isIraq, an aggressive, nationalistic dictatorship. To the west, we abutEgypt, a large but poor country, with a western orientation, aiming tolead the Arab world. We have a long border with Israel which, if youforgive me, is a foreign body in the region, a modern, western state withexpansionist objectives. In the West Bank there is the Palestinianpeople, fighting for independence, with radical elements. To thenorth-west, not too far off from our border, is the conflict-ridden,unstable Lebanon, with many dangerous elements.”
And in conclusion: “Influences from all of these neighbors — ideas,refugees, agents — penetrate our tiny country. All converge on our land.We try to moderate and absorb them. Our very existence depends onbalancing these neighbors. All pose a danger to us. We can’t afford tomaintain a hostile relationship with any of them for very long.”
He gazed at the portrait of the king hanging on the wall. “Hussein is amaster at this game. Today, when he supports Iraq, which is engaged in awar with Iran, he knows that tomorrow he will have to placate its enemy,Syria. When next he establishes rapport with Syria, he will have tofollow it with a gesture towards Israel. The gesture towards Israel hemust balance with a statement in favor of the Palestinians. Do not forgetthat half of our population is Palestinian. Next he has to calm Saudifears of Iraq and the Palestinians. All this without incurring the wrathof Saddam.”
And this, my friends, is the entire analysis standing on one foot.Napoleon once said: “If you want to understand the policies of a state,just look at the map.” He was not necessarily thinking of a map drawn ona paper napkin in a French restaurant across the Jordan river from Israel.And yet: King Hussein lived within this map. He never liked Israel, justas he never liked Iraq or Syria. He has always been a consummatesurvivor, a geopolitical dancer. When he kissed Rabin, he was thinking ofArafat, and when he embraced Saddam, he was glancing at Assad with one eyeand at Fahd of Saudi Arabia with the other. This is why the king madepeace with us only after Arafat had signed the Oslo Accords, making itokay for others to follow. Sadat and Arafat had dared and took the risk;Hussein followed them gingerly.
Now we are trying to guess: Will the next king be “a lover of Israel” likehis father? Will he embrace Netanyahu? Will he maintain the “warm” and”intimate” relations? Intelligence reports are drafted, individuals whohave met him on occasion are interviewed, scholarly researches areconducted. With all due respect — what nonsense.
The next king will do exactly as all his predecessors did, like hisgreat-grandfather Abdallah, like his father Hussein, neither morenor less. His true sentiments have absolutely no bearing on thematter. If he secretly despises Ariel Sharon, the man behindthe massacres of Kibyeh and Shatilla, he will, nevertheless, kiss himwarmly on both cheeks, thinking about his Palestinian wife. If hedespises Saddam, he will make heartfelt pronouncements about the sufferingof the Iraqi people. This is the name of the game called Jordan.
Kings come and go. But the map remains.