It is not very flattering to be paraded like a Rottweiler on a leash, whose masterthreatens to let him loose on his enemies. But this is our situation now.
Vice President Dick Cheney threatened a few weeks ago that if Iran continues to developits nuclear capabilities, Israel might attack her.
This week, President George Bush repeated this threat. If he were the leader of Israel , hedeclared, he would have been feeling threatened by Iran . He reminded those who are a littleslow that the United States has undertaken to defend Israel if there is a threat to itssecurity.
All this adds up to a clear warning: if Iran does not submit to the orders of the US (and,perhaps, even if it does) Israel will attack it with American help, much as it attacked theIraqi nuclear reactor some 24 years ago.
The same week, something quite unexpected happened: Ariel Sharon sent theChief-of-Staff, Moshe Ya’alon, packing. His successor will most probably be General DanHalutz.
Halutz is, of course, a pilot, and one who played his part in the 1981 attack on the Iraqireactor. If he succeeds Ya’alon, it will be the first time in the annals of the Israel DefenseForces that an airman is appointed Chief-of-Staff. That is rather curious. In the comingyear, the army will be called upon to carry out a very difficult operation on land: theevacuation of the Gaza Strip settlements. The appointment of an Air Force general asChief-of-Staff may hint that the IDF is planning something even more important in the air.
(Entr’act: Nobody will shed a tear at the removal of Ya’alon. As Chief-of-Staff, he bearsresponsibility for all the terrible things that happened in the army during the last threeyears, from the “killing verification” of a 13-year old girl to the “neighbor practice” –compelling a Palestinian civilian to walk in front of soldiers on their way to kill a militant.But if Ya’alon is succeeded by Halutz, it will confirm the pessimistic dictum that for everybad man removed there is an even worse one to succeed him.
For those who have forgotten: Halutz (“pioneer”, in Hebrew) aroused a public storm afterthe Air Force dropped a one-ton bomb on the house of a Hamas leader and killed him together with15 civilians, including nine children. Asked what he feels when dropping such a bomb, heanswered “a slight bump”, adding that he sleeps well afterwards. On the same opportunity hevilified Gush Shalom for its actions against war crimes and demanded that we be put on trial fortreason.)
Back to Bush-Cheney and the Rottweiler.
When Bush came to power for the first time, the Neo-Cons laid before him a coherent plan forthe extension of the American Empire in the Middle East. It contained three chapters:
One, to conquer Iraq in order to take control of its immense oil reserves and place anAmerican garrison at the critical junction between the Caspian Sea oil and the Saudiresources.
Two, to break the Iranian regime and return Iran to the American bloc.
Three, to do the same to Syria and Lebanon . It was not yet decided whether Iran would comebefore Syria , or the other way round.
It might have been assumed that the experience of the American adventure in Iraq wouldcancel the next chapters. The Iraqi people did not receive the occupying army with flowers.The pretext for the invasion – Saddam’s weapons of mass destruction – was exposed as a blatantlie. The armed insurrection continues. The future of the Iraqi state hangs in the balance,even after the recent elections. The country may well break up into three parts, creatingshock waves all around the Middle East .
Naive people believe that after all this, Bush would not risk more adventures of thiskind. They are wrong.
First, because a primitive and vain person like him never admits to failure. When one ofhis adventures fails, this just drives him on to even more ambitious ones.
Second, the failure does indeed cost a lot of lives and destroys the infrastructure oflife in Iraq , but that doesn’t matter for the planners of the operation. The main aim –establishing a permanent garrison in the country – has been achieved. Outside of Iraq , nobodyis demanding that the American soldiers leave. And, whatever the acts of sabotage, the Iraqioil is controlled by the US . The oil barons, who are the patrons of the Bush family, can be wellsatisfied.
The Europeans and Russian are trying to block Bush’s path. He is now going to pay a statevisit to the EU and NATO, trying to convince them by sweet talk and threats to cooperate in hisadventures.
Therefore, one must take seriously Bush’s and Cheney’s threats to unleash theRottweiler. The moment they feel that the way is clear, they will give the sign to Sharon .Sharon will do his duty, in return for an American agreement to allow him to gobble up some morepieces of the Palestinian territories.
Will military action cause the regime of the Ayatollahs to collapse? I doubt it. It is,indeed, a detestable regime, but faced with an attack from the outside, especially from“Crusaders and Zionists”, the Iranian people will unite behind it. A proud people, with aglorious history like the Iranians, will not break easily.
Syria is a different target. Unlike Iraq and Iran , it has no oil resources. But without itthe American Empire will not be contiguous and it is an obstacle to Israel .
In the 1967 war, Israel conquered the Golan heights , which until then were known in Israelas “the Syrian heights”. In place of many dozens of Syrian villages, which were wiped from theface of the earth, Israel settlements sprang up. The Syrians have never given up their resolveto recover their territory. In 1973, they tried to do this by war but were routed, in spite of aremarkable initial victory. Since then, the balance of military power has tilted even more infavor of Israel . Therefore, Syria is using another method: harassing Israel by proxy, bygiving support to Hisbullah and radical Palestinan organizations, whose leaders reside inDamascus .
In order to make permanent its rule over the Golan heights , the Israeli governmentmust break Syria . The neo-cons in Washington – surprise, surprise – have the same aim. Thepretext: the fact that Syrian soldiers are stationed in Lebanon .
Historically, Lebanon is a part of Syria . Damascus has never resigned itself to theestablishment of a separate Lebanese state by the French colonialists in the first half of the20 th century. At the most, it accepts Lebanon as a client state.
The Syrian army entered Lebanon in 1976, at the height of the terrible civil war there. TheMuslims and Druze, with help of the PLO, were poised to conquer the Christian areas. It was theChristians (please remember!) who called upon the Syrians to come and save them. Since then,the Syrians have remained there. Many Lebanese believe that their departure would cause thecivil war to break out again.
In 1982 Israel tried to dislodge them. That was the main objective of the army generalstaff (as distinct from then Minister of Defense Ariel Sharon , whose main objective was todrive the Palestinians out). But the invasion did not achieve its aim: in the end, the Israeliswere driven out and the Syrians remained.
This week, the Muslim leader Fariq al-Hariri, who lately joined the opposition, wasassassinated in Beirut . It is not yet known who did it. The huge American propaganda machine,which includes the Israeli media, has pointed at the Syrians. If they are indeed guilty, it wasan act of supreme folly, since it was obvious that it would help the Americans build up theLebanese opposition and arouse a storm of anti-Syrian sentiment. It happened at exactly theright moment for anyone interested in starting a campaign against Syria , under the slogan“End the Syrian Occupation!”
There is something laughable about this demand, coming as it does from two occupyingpowers: the Americans in Iraq and the Israelis in Palestine . But Rottweilers are not renownedfor their sense of humor, any more than those who parade them around on a leash.