Two disasters befell the Labor party two years ago: 1) It lost theelections. 2) It lost by a minuscule margin. Of those two disasters, thelatter is the bigger one.
A big defeat can carry within it a great blessing. Military historyabounds in such examples. Ehud Barak, who enjoys studying the history ofwars, could undoubtedly quote a number of such examples. For instance,Prussia crumbled in humiliating fashion in the face of Napoleon’s army in1806. Prussia took stock and carried out sweeping reforms in the militaryand the state. As a result, it transformed itself into a world power.Another example: After its defeat in World War I in 1918, Germany built asmall but efficient army, adopting the newest tactics, creating the mightyinstrument which served Hitler’s blitzkrieg, while the “victorious” armiesof Britain and France atrophied.
In the Israeli elections for Prime Minister, Netanyahu defeated Peres by amargin of 29,457 votes. Since that time, the party can’t shake the awfulthought that, if only 14,729 citizens had voted for Peres instead ofNetanyahu, then everything would have been different. It would be veryeasy to find 101 small reasons for the loss of so few votes: If onlyPeres had not authorized the assassination of “the Engineer,” Hamas wouldnot have carried out the bombings on the eve of the elections. If onlyartillery had not shelled the Kafr Kanah refugee camp in Lebanon, all ofthe Arab Israeli citizens would have mobilized for Peres, and none of themwould have thrown in a blank ballot into the box instead. If only Laborhad invoked the memory of Rabin, instead of hiding it on the eve of theelections…If only Haim Ramon were Yosi Beilin…if only person X had notsaid such-and-such…if only person Y had acted differently…
And so, instead of putting its house in order from the bottom up,instead of exchanging the entire upper echelon, instead of sweepingreforms, the party behaves like a cat chasing its own tail. If there isany party debate at all, it revolves around the question: How can itacquire 15,000 extra votes? And the conclusion: if we shift a little moretoward the right, and a bit more toward the orthodox, then we will catchthat tail any minute now.
Admittedly, here and there some cogent theoretical analysis was done(Shevah Weiss did a great job, only to be promptly forgotten), and effortwas even made to take stock and draw the necessary conclusions — but allended with deafening silence.
The truth is that the Labor party did not lose by 15,000 floating votes.The party retained most of the Ashkenazi, secular and Arab votes. Theparty was defeated because a huge coalition of demographic sectors rose upagainst it: The entire religious-haredi camp, the vast majority of theOriental population, the vast majority of the Russian immigrants, inaddition to the settlers and the Right wing lunatic fringe.
Whoever attempts to win the next election must first take a substantialbite out of one of these sectors. Acquiring 15,000 accidental votes willnot be enough. In order to carry out a peace policy, a much biggermajority is needed. With that goal in mind, Labor would have to formulatea new strategy and execute it consistently, without shifts to the right orthe left.
Only a fool would believe that inroads can be made into thereligious-haredi camp. Despite its lack of uniformity, it is atotalitarian camp, suffused with the ideology of the extreme Right, whichis getting ever more extreme. Those fooled by the sweet smiles of theharedi missionaries can go and hang themselves on a strip of tefillin.
What remains are the other two sectors: The Oriental and the Russianimmigrant sectors. Both are very tough nuts to crack. The conversion ofa son or grandson of a Moroccan immigrant from his Likud religion to theLabor religion is as difficult a task as the crossing of the Red Sea. Itis like switching a fan’s loyalties from Betar Yerushalaim to Ha’PoelYerushalaim. It would be easier to perform a sex-change operation. TheBetar coach can prove to be an idiot, the players can lose ten to zero,the fans can scream to their hearts content, but they are not about tochange the color of their shirts just for that. They “belong.”
In order to win the hearts of the Oriental populace, Labor must carry outdeep-seated reforms. It is not enough to take an Oriental activist andplace him in a prominent position. Those days are gone. The problemneeds to be addressed at its root: To formulate a plan for an economic andsocial revolution, which would be utterly different from the Likudconcept, to make clear the connection between the economic and the peacemessages, to heal the wounds of the spirit. Barak’s asking the Oriebtalcommunity for forgiveness was a small step in the right direction, butwithout the other necessary 101 steps, it has no value. All the aboveholds true for the Russian immigrant population too.
Against this backdrop, the utterances of MK Ori Orr against theMorrocans were a crime against his party. Orr’s subsequentactions inspire amazement at his obstinacy and lack of understanding. Butthe inability of Ehud Barak to react promptly and perform adequate damagecontrol is evidence of the mother of all of Labor’s present problems: Itis in fact Barak, a professional general, who is incapable of formulatinga clear strategy and sticking to it come hell or high water.
And so the cat continues to chase its own tail. It is a funny spectacle,but entirely unamusing.