Once upon a time, an assistant to Levy Eshkol, our late Prime Minister, rushed up to him andcried: “Levy, a disaster! A drought has set in!”
“Where?” the Prime Minister asked anxiously, “in Texas ?”
“No, here in Israel !” the man replied.
“Then there’s nothing to worry about,” Eshkol said dismissively.
Right from the beginning, the State of Israel has been critically affected by events inthe United States . “If America sneezes, Israel catches cold,” is the local version of theuniversal saying.
This is particularly true in the run-up to American elections. They can be as importantfor Israel as our own, since the occupant of the White House can influence the fate of Israel inmany significant ways. But they have an additional significance: the months before theAmerican elections are a kind of open season for Israel .
The basic assumption is that no candidate for the White House would dare to provoke theAmerican Jewish voters at election times. They are an extremely well organized and highlymotivated political bloc, ready to donate heaps of money, which gives them political cloutwell beyond their numbers.
Actually, there are now more Muslims than Jews in the United States , but they are notorganized, their motivation is weak, their willingness to donate large amounts of money nearzero. Their adherence to the Palestinian cause, for example, cannot match the fierce loyaltyof most of the Jews to Israel . Moreover, in this the Jews are now joined by tens of millions ofChristian evangelical fundamentalists.
Israeli governments naturally time their most controversial moves to coincide with theAmerican elections. The more closely fought the elections, the more attractive it is forIsraeli planners and adventurers.
The State of Israel unilaterally declared its independence in May 1948, when HarryTruman’s reelection campaign was in a critical condition. David Ben Gurion made the decisionagainst the advice of some of his wisest colleagues, who warned him that the United Stateswould oppose the move with all its might. He bet on the inability of the American system to dothat during an election campaign.
At the time, Truman was desperately in need of money. Some Jewish millionaires providedit. To show his gratitude, and against the express advice of his Secretary of State (GeorgeMarshall) and especially his Secretary of Defense (James Forrestal), Truman immediatelyaccorded the new state de facto recognition. (Stalin trumped him and recognized Israel dejure .)
Since then, this has been a repeating pattern. The Israeli government ordered the army toattack in 1967 (starting the Six Day War) after receiving an OK from President Lyndon Johnson,who at the time was still hoping to be reelected in 1968. The critical first year after that war,when America failed to induce Israel to withdraw from the territories its army had conquered,was, of course, an election year. Most of our present troubles stem from that.
Only once did the calculation fail. In 1956 Ben Gurion colluded with France and Britainagainst Egypt ’s Gamal Abd-el-Nasser. After conquering the Sinai peninsula , Ben-Guriondeclared the “ Third Israeli Kingdom ”. He was convinced that the Americans were preoccupiedwith their election and would not interfere. He was wrong.
President Dwight D. Eisenhower, who was standing for reelection, was assured of alandslide majority. He did not need the Jewish vote. He was also a man of principle. So hepresented Ben- Gurion with what amounted to an ultimatum: evacuate the Sinai or else. Fourdays after setting up his “kingdom” Ben-Gurion announced its demise. But this was anexception.
Ariel Sharon, who considers himself a personal disciple of Ben-Gurion (as does ShimonPeres), is basing his present policy on the same calculation. President George W. Bush isfighting for his political life. He will not dare to provoke a quarrel with Israel at thisjuncture. So from now until November, Sharon can do much as he pleases.
President Bush’s famous Road Map is dead. (I can hear him exclaiming: “Road Map? What RoadMap? The only Map I need is of the road to the White House!”) His demand for a freeze on allbuilding activity in the settlements, “even for the natural increase”, is becoming a joke.Sharon has just openly flouted this by announcing plans for 600 new houses in the Ma’alehAdumim settlement.
Emissaries of the Security Council and the State Department (Zionist Jews, by the way)are practically begging Sharon on their knees to dismantle dozens of new settlements(referred to as outposts”) put up since he assumed power in 2001. Sharon has promised this toBush many times, in return for reversals of long-standing US policy. Sharon must be hard putnot to laugh in their faces.
However, Sharon does have a vital interest in Bush’s reelection. He is afraid of JohnKerry, even if he says exactly the same as Bush on the Israeli-Palestinian issue, and hisgrandfather’s name was Cohen. Experience has shown that there is no necessary correlationbetween what politicians say before elections and what they do after them. That is the otherside of the election coin.
So Sharon may be induced to do something – anything at all – that will allow Bush to claim thecredit for a “historical breakthrough” in the Middle East . Perhaps – who knows? – a week beforethe elections, three mobile homes may be dismantled on some godforsaken hilltop in Samaria .Wow!