It was a putsch. Like any classic putsch, it was carried out by a group of officers: Sharon,Mofaz, Ya’alon and the army top brass.
It is no secret that the military party (the only really functioning party in Israel) objectedto the hudna (truce) from the first moment, much as it opposed the Road Map. Its powerfulpropaganda apparatus, which includes all the Israeli media, spread the message: “The hudnais a disaster! Every day of the hudna is a bad day! The reduction of violence to almost zero is agreat misfortune: under cover of the truce, the terrorist organizations are recovering andrearming! Every terrorist strike avoided today will hit us much harder tomorrow!”
The army command was like an addict deprived of his drug. It was forbidden to carry out theaction it wanted. It was just about to crush the intifada , victory was just around the corner,all that was needed was just one final decisive blow, and that would have been that.
The military was upset when it saw the new hope that took hold of the Israeli public, the bullishmood of the stock exchange, the rise in value of the shekel, the return of the masses to theentertainment centers, the signs of optimism on both sides. In effect, It was a spontaneouspopular vote against the military policy.
Ariel Sharon realized that if this went on, reality would overturn his long-term plans.Therefore, right at the beginning of the hudna , he adopted three immediate goals:
First , to topple Abu-Mazen as soon as possible. Mahmud Abbas had become the darling of GeorgeBush, a welcome guest at the White House. The unique standing of Sharon in Washington was indanger. The pair Bush-Sharon, which was mutating into a single Busharon unit, was in danger ofbecoming a triangle: Bush-Sharon-Abbas. There is no greater danger to Sharon’s plans.
Second , to wipe out the Road Map in its infancy. The Map obliged Sharon to remove immediatelyabout 80 settlement outposts, freeze all settlements, stop the building of the wall andwithdraw the army from all West Bank towns. Sharon never dreamt of fulfilling even one of theseobligations.
Third , to put an end to the hudna and give the army back its freedom of action in all thePalestinian territories.
The question was how this could be achieved without a trace of suspicion attaching itself toSharon. The great majority of Israelis, who had greeted the hudna , could not possibly beallowed to suspect that their own leaders were responsible for extinguishing this glimmer ofhope. Even more important, it was imperative that no such pernicious idea should enter theinnocent head of the good George W. All the blame must fall on the Palestinians, so that theaffection for Abu-Mazen would turn into contempt and hatred.
The means for attaining this goal were selected with great care, taking into account thesimplistic world of Bush with its Good Guys and Bad Guys. The Bad Guys are the terrorists.Therefore, it was advisable to kill Hamas and Jihad militants. That would not upset Bush. Inthe eyes of the President, to kill terrorists is a Good Thing. And as a result, the Palestinianswould be compelled to break the hudna .
This is how it happened:
On August 8, Israeli soldiers killed two Hamas militants in Nablus. But the retaliation wasrestrained: on August 12, a Hamas suicide bomber killed one Israeli in Rosh-Ha’ayin andanother bomber killed one person in the Ariel settlement. Both suicide bombers came fromNablus. Hamas announced that the hudna would continue. On August 14, the Israeli army killedMuhammad Seeder, head of the military wing of Hamas in Hebron. Five days later, on August 19, asuicide bomber from Hebron blew himself up in a Jerusalem bus, killing 20 men, women andchildren. Two days later, on August 21, the army assassinated Isma’il Abu-Shanab, the fourthranking leader of Hamas.
This time it was not even possible even to pin on the victim the appellation “ticking bomb”, asis usual in such cases. The man was a well-known political leader. Why was he of all peoplechosen for assassination? A military correspondent on Israeli TV made a slip of the tongue:Abu-Shanab was killed, he said, because he was “available”. Meaning, he was an easy targetbecause he did not go underground after the bus bombing, as did the leaders of the militarywing.
This time, at long last, the aim was achieved. The Palestinian organizations announced thatthey were calling off the hudna . Sharon and Co. rejoiced. Within hours the Israeli army hadagain penetrated into the centers of the Palestinian towns, starting an orgy of arrests andhouse demolitions (more than 40 in a single day).
The addict leapt for the drug. His crisis was over, the officers could do all the things they hadbeen prevented from doing for nine long weeks.
But the situation will not revert to the status quo ante intifada , so to speak. The attacks andkillings will be more numerous and more cruel. The construction of the Wall deep in thePalestinian territories will be accelerated, along with the building activity in thesettlements.
The army propaganda machine is already preparing the public for the “expulsion of Arafat”.”Expulsion” is a euphemism produced by the “verbal laundry” section of the army, one of itsmost creative departments. The intention is not to expel the leader from his Ramallahcompound, nor from Palestine, but from this world. The reaction of the Palestinians and thewhole Arab world can be predicted. It would be a historic point of no return, perhapseliminating the chances of peace for generations.
And the Americans? Never has the Bush administration looked so pathetic as here and now. Theunfortunate Colin Powell arouses compassion with his stuttering and his emissary, JohnWolf, a wolf without teeth, will go the way of all his predecessors.
After the implosion of the new order in Afghanistan and the classic guerilla war now engulfingthe universally hated occupation regime in Iraq, the collapse of the Road Map will put an end toany presidential pretensions. It is much easier to have one’s picture taken in the uniform of aglorious victor with a background of army extras than to steer the ship of state.
The renewal of the cycle of violence will, of course, exacerbate the economic depression inIsrael. The crisis will deepen. Together with the hudna and the Road Map, tourism, foreigninvestment and the recovery will also die.
The economy, too, is an addict who needs his drug: nine billion dollars in US government loanguarantees are waiting for Sharon in Washington. That should be enough for the political andmilitary elite. Only the poor will become poorer. But who cares?
All this is being done without consulting the Israeli public. There is no open discussion, nodebate in the tame media, the silent Knesset and the cabinet of marionettes. That’s what makesit a putsch.
To sum up: The road Map is dead, because Sharon was against it from the beginning, Bush saw itonly as a photo opportunity on a nice background and Abu-Mazen did not get from Israel and the USanything that he could present as a Palestinian achievement.
What will happen now? After the shedding of yet more blood and many tears, the two peoples willarrive once more at the conviction that it is better to come to an agreement and make peace. Thenthey will be compelled to learn the lesson of the last chapter: It must all start from the end.Only after the picture of the final settlement clearly emerges can one deal with the immediateproblems. Anything else would be a road map to the abyss.