Abu-Mazen will fall before the end of October – this conviction is gaining ground in leadingPalestinian circles.
This forecast is based on the belief that Abu-Mazen will not get anything, neither from theAmericans nor from Sharon. No release for most of the prisoners, no complete removal of thecheckpoints inside the Palestinian territories, no stop to the building of the wall, no totalwithdrawal of the army from Palestinian towns, no lifting of the blockade on PresidentArafat, no freeze of the settlements, no dismantling of the settlement outposts that were putup in the last two and a half years (as stipulated by the Road Map).
If they had wanted to “help Abu-Mazen”, to quote the formula current in Washington, they wouldhave fulfilled at least some of these demands. But nothing of the sort has happened. The wellpublicized release of a handful of prisoners, most of whom where due to be released anyhow,only highlighted the absence of goodwill and increased the anger.
Abu-Mazen became Prime Minister because the Americans demanded it. The Palestinians hopedthat the Americans would give him things that they were unwilling to grant Yasser Arafat. Thiswould have meant the US exerting real pressure on Sharon in order to compel him to deliver thegoods. This has not happened. The terrible conditions of life in the occupied territorieshave not improved. In some places they have even deteriorated.
Abu-Mazen does not enjoy wide public support. Formally, he represents the ruling party,Fatah, but even there his standing is problematical. The party is devoted to Yasser Arafat ,and Abu-Mazen’s political existence depends on support from Arafat.
In a recent Palestinian popularity poll, Abu-Mazen received 2% of the votes. Arafat tops thelist, of course. After him comes Mustafa Barghouti, who has set up a large-scale aid networkfor the suffering population. The third place was taken by Marwan Barghouti, the leader of theFatah cadres, who is standing trial in Israel. Abu-Mazen was near the bottom.
Sharon could have saved Abu-Mazen if he had wanted to. But here, too, it is advisable to ignorewhat Sharon says and to pay attention to what he does: undermining Abu Mazen. He is worried bythe respect paid to Abu-Mazen by the White House and Congress, fearing that American supportof Israel might shrink from 100% to a mere 95%.
The fall of Abu-Mazen in a vote of the Palestinian Legislative Council will be very convenientfor Sharon. He believes that it will kill the Road Map, and with it the demands to stop thebuilding of the wall, dismantle the outposts and freeze the settlements.
In this matter, too, Sharon enjoys the support of the army command, which opposes the Hudna(truce) and is longing for the renewal of the violence. As always, the army commanders believethat victory is just around the corner and that Palestinian resistance is on the verge ofcollapse. All that is needed is one last decisive blow.
Will the hopes of Sharon and Co. regarding America come true? That depends on who succeedsAbu-Mazen.
Arafat’s candidate is the Palestinian millionaire from Nablus, Munib al-Masri, the scion ofa well established family, a man with widespread business interests throughout the Arabcountries and the rest of the world. He is a man of proven ability, popular among thePalestinians.
Another likely candidate is the new Minister of Finance, Salaam Fayad. He, too, hasestablished his competence. In a short time he has put the Palestinian Authority’s financesin order, eliminated much of the corruption, organized the regular payment of salaries(replacing a man carrying a suitcase full of money with direct transfer to the bank accounts ofthe employees.) He is well respected by the Palestinian public.
Both these candidates are acceptable to the Americans. The election of one of them as the nextPrime Minister would ensure that the relations between Washington and Ramallah continue toimprove.
If Abu-Mazen falls, his security chief, Muhammad Dahlan, may fall with him. He got his jobbecause the Americans (and Sharon’s people, of course) demanded it. That has hurt hisstanding right from the beginning. He is a Fatah man, but not a member of the “RevolutionaryCouncil”, the highest Fatah leadership body. The suspicion that he sees himself as Arafat’ssuccessor does not make him more popular, either.
The long-term rival of Dahlan, Jibril Rajoub, formerly the powerful chief of security on theWest Bank, has recently been reconciled with Arafat, after the famous incident in which theleader boxed his ears. His standing was hurt during the reoccupation of Ramallah by theIsraeli army (“Operation Defensive Shield”), when Rajoub’s headquarters was occupied andseveral Hamas prisoners taken, in spite of an explicit American promise that the compoundwould be immune from attack. Lately he has recovered from a dangerous operation and assuredArafat of his full support, but declined to accept an official position.
Like Abu-Mazen and many others, Rajoub opposes the armed intifada and advocates the idea ofnon-violent popular resistance. He pins his hopes on the Israeli Left and believes that thecessation of violence, and cooperation with the Israeli peace camp, will bring about a majorchange. The adherents of armed resistance argue, in return, that force is the only languageIsrael understands, and that without violence nothing at all can be achieved. The generalPalestinian public wavers between these two strategic views.
At this moment, only the Americans can save Abu-Mazen. In the blockbuster film, “SavingPrivate Ryan”, an army unit was sent to rescue a soldier missing behind enemy lines. Now theAmericans’ mission is to save Abu-Mazen from the jaws of Sharon.