After “Intifada” (shaking off) and “Shahid” (martyr), another Arabic term has entered theworld’s vocabulary: “Hudna” (truce).
In Islamic tradition, the word evokes an historical event. The first Islamic truce wasdeclared in the year 628 AD at Hodaibiya, in the course of Muhammad’s war against the paganchiefs of Mecca. According to the version now doing the rounds in Israel, Muhammad broke thetruce and conquered Mecca. Ergo: Don’t believe the Arabs, don’t believe in the Hudna.
In Arab history books, the same event is presented quite differently. The Hudna allowed theadherents of the new faith to enter Mecca on a pilgrimage to the holy rock. The pilgrims used theopportunity to make converts. When most citizens had accepted Islam, Muhammad entered thecity almost without bloodshed and was received with open arms. Ergo: already in theirearliest history, Muslims realized that persuasion is better than force.
Therein lies the answer to the questions that are being asked now: Will the Hudna last? Will itcontinue after the initial three-month period? Will Arafat and Abu-Mazen succeed inbringing Hamas along with them?
The answers depend completely on the mood of the Palestinian population. If it wants theHudna, the Hudna will last. If it detests the Hudna, it will collapse. Hamas does not want tolose public sympathy by breaking a popular Hudna. On the contrary, it wants to play a major rolein the future Palestinian state. But if the population comes to the conclusion that the Hudnahas borne no fruit, Hamas will be the first to break it.
On what will this depend? If the Hudna delivers a major political achievement to the nation anda marked improvement in the quality of life to individuals, it will be popular and take root.
That is logical, and that corresponds with my own personal experience. I have alreadymentioned in these columns that in my early youth I was a member of a liberation and/orterrorist organization (the definition depends on your point of view). At that time, Ilearned that such an organization needs public support and cannot operate without it. Itneeds money, means of propaganda, hiding places, new members. For an organization likeHamas, that has also political and social ambitions, popularity is doubly important. As longas the Hudna is popular, Hamas will abide by it.
This is primarily a test for Abu-Mazen. What can he do to make the Hudna popular? He must securethe wide-scale release of Palestinian prisoners; the amelioration of the horrible livingconditions; the withdrawal of the Israeli army from the towns and villages; the removal of thecheckpoints that make Palestinian life miserable; the restoration of freedom of access tothe urban centers, the work places, hospitals and universities; an ending of targetedassassinations, deportations, demolition of homes and uprooting of groves; the freeze onbuilding activities in the settlements and an end to the construction of the “fence” that isbiting off large chunks of land from the West Bank.
If there is no progress in all these matters, the Hudna will collapse. Should this happen, theIsraeli military and political establishment will shed no tears. There the Hudna wasreceived with much gnashing of teeth, as if it were imposed by some hostile force. As a matter offact, it came about by sheer American pressure. The Israeli media, all of whom have long agobecome propaganda instruments of the “security establishment”, received the Hudna inunison, as if by order, with comments like “It has no chance. It will not last” – a prophecy thatmay well prove to be self-realizing.
The army command opposed the cease-fire. As always, the officers explained that victory wasjust around the corner, that all it needed was one last decisive blow. Exactly this, in the verysame words, was said by the French generals who opposed ending the war in Algeria, and by theAmerican generals when Nixon finally gave up in Vietnam. This was said by the Russian generalsin Afghanistan, and now they are saying it again in Chechnya. They are always just about to win.They always need to deliver just one more blow. And it’s always the corrupt politicians whostick a knife in their backs and bring about defeat.
The truth is that the army commanders have failed dismally. They have had many smallsuccesses, but they have failed to achieve their main aim: to break the will of the Palestinianpeople. For every “local leader” who was “targeted” and “liquidated”, two new ones arose. The”terrorist infrastructure” was not destroyed, because there is no way to destroy it. It is notcomposed of arms workshops and leaders, but of popular support and the number of youngstersready to risk and abandon their lives.
After 1000 days, in spite of the killing and the destruction, the Palestinian spirit ofresistance and their fighting capacity were not broken. The Palestinian people has not givenup the demands expressed at Camp David and Taba. At the beginning of this Intifada, someindividuals volunteered for suicide missions; at its end, hundreds stood in line.
The Palestinians did not win, either. They have proved that they can not be brought to theirknees. They have prevented the Palestinian cause from being struck from the world agenda. TheIsraeli economy has been hit hard. The Intifada has cast its shadow over daily life in Israel.Many of the acts that are considered criminal by Israelis look to the Palestinians likeglorious acts of heroism. The destruction of Israeli tanks, the elimination of a majorcheckpoint by one solitary sniper, the attack by Palestinian commandos who crawled under the”separation wall” – acts like these have filled the Palestinians with pride. And the very factthat after 1000 days the Palestinian David remains standing and facing the mighty IsraeliGoliath is by itself an achievement that will be proudly passed down to the coming generationsof Palestinians.
But the Palestinians have not succeeded in imposing their will on Israel, just as Israel hasnot succeeded in imposing its will on the Palestinians. Both the Israelis and thePalestinians are exhausted. This Intifada has ended, for the time being, in a draw.
Mosh Ya’alon, a chief-of-staff with an unquenchable thirst for talking, has proclaimedvictory. But on the same day, in a respected Israeli public opinion poll, 73% of those polledexpressed the opinion that Israel has not won, and 33% even saw the Palestinians as thevictors. The largest circulation newspaper in the country headlined a story about thechief-of-staff with the ironic words: “For your information, We Have Won!” The majority doesnot believe that the Hudna will hold. But in the meantime, every day that passes without humansacrifice on either side is a pure gain for all of us.
What now? Real negotiations? Negotiations that are nothing other than make-believe?Efforts by both sides to court the Americans? American pressure on both parties to come up withsome real actions? Ask Condoleezza.