First thoughts after the Aqaba meeting:
- Solo performance . If there had been a printed program, it would have looked something like this:
“Peace in the Holy Land” by George W. Bush.
Director: George Bush.
Principal actor: W. B. George.
Music: G. W. Bush.
Mis en scene : Bush W. George.
Speeches: G.W.B.
- What makes George run ? Why this sudden enthusiasm for personal intervention in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict?
There is a purely political aspect: in Afghanistan, anarchy reigns. In Iraq, all thehigh-sounding plans about a “democratic Iraqi government” have been shelved. In the UnitedStates, ugly news-stories are circulating, insinuating that the administrationdeliberately deceived the public about the existence of Iraqi weapons of mass destruction.
Bush needs an uncontested achievement in the Middle East. What could be more beautiful ontelevision than the picture of the President of the United States standing between the PrimeMinisters of Israel and Palestine with a background of blue sea and soaring palms, bringingpeace to the two suffering peoples?
For this purpose, Bush has set in motion a brutal steamroller that crushes all opposition,Palestinian or Israeli. Bush practically dictated all four speeches himself.
This is not a one-day stand. It will go on until the American election in November 2004. Bushwants to be reelected, and this time with a real majority. Therefore, we shall probably beliving for a year and a half in the shadow of the Bush initiative, enforced by Colin Powell andCondoleezza Rice. Both Israelis and Palestinians will have to conduct their business withinthis framework.
And please remember: Bush is no Clinton. Clinton was an attractive, sympathetic, veryintelligent, idealistic and devoted president. He really wanted to solve the problem. But hesuffered from a certain lack of seriousness and moral fiber. Bush, on the other hand is notsophisticated. If anything he is rather primitive. But he has a brutal willpower that does notsuffer contradiction. When he wants something, he unleashes the power of the United States toattain it.
Now he wants a conspicuous achievement in the Israeli-Palestinian arena, an achievementthat will look good on television and be clear to every American voter. Anyone who gets in hisway will be crushed.
It is impossible to know how long this pressure will last. Some may hope that it will go on tillthe final agreement. Others may count in weeks. But in our desperate situation, every week isimportant.
- The Aircraft-Carrier changes course . Bush’s personal calculations must be seen, of course, against the national background.
Immediately after the Twin-Towers outrage, I wrote in this column that this traumatic eventwould compel the United States to change its policy towards the Israeli-Palestinianconflict. Such an atrocity would have been impossible without the huge accumulation of furyand hatred directed against the US in the Arab – and, indeed, the entire Muslim – world. This hasmany causes, but the first and foremost among them is American support for Sharon’s brutalityin the Palestinian territories, seen daily by millions of Arabs and other Muslims onal-Jazeerah television.
I predicted then that the US would act quickly to change that policy. I made my prediction – andnothing happened. I had to admit (at least to myself) that I was wrong, that American logicdoesn’t work this way.
And now it is happening, after all. Two years late the US is indeed changing course. I did nottake the time factor into account. A speedboat like Israel can turn around in weeks, anaircraft-carrier like the USA needs years.
It is said that the American public is not interested in foreign affairs, that in electionsonly domestic issues matter. That is true in normal times, such as the days of George Bush Sr.But the events of 9/11 have brought the Middle East into every American living room, much as theJapanese attack on Pearl Harbor. It has now become a domestic matter.
- The leopard’s spots . Has Sharon changed his skin?
It may seem like that. He has spoken about the “occupation” (and denied it immediately). He isgoing to remove outposts (but only make-believe outposts). He talks about a “Palestinianstate” (But not about the “State of Palestine”). So what has happened? Has he got old?Desperate? Wise?
None of these. As a son of the soil, he is sensitive to changes in the weather. He notices the newwinds blowing from Washington. The smiling George W., his great buddy, adopts a rough tone inprivate conversations. He dictates instead of discussing. He issues ultimatums. What is tobe done?
Sharon behaves like the Jew who was threatened with death if he did not teach the Polishnobleman’s beloved horse to read and write. Pleading that the job is difficult, the Jew askedfor three years. “By then, either the horse or the nobleman will be dead,” he comforted hisdespairing wife.
Sharon accepted the Bush ultimatum, but only in appearances. He is trying to win time, at leastuntil after the American elections. Perhaps Bush will not be reelected, perhaps he will haveother things to worry about by then. In the meantime, Sharon will do the inescapable minimum,postpone everything that can be postponed, cheat as much as he can, change what can be changed.His principal assistant, Dov Weissglass, is a grand master of this kind of thing.
Sharon’s final objective has not changed, and in Aqaba he has said nothing to contradict it. Ifthe Arabs cannot be removed from the country, they must be confined to isolated enclaves,which will be connected artificially by strips of land to create “contiguity”. He is ready tocall this a “Palestinian state”. It will consist of 42% of the occupied territories, whichthemselves constitute 22% of Palestine before 1948. The main settlement blocs will remain asthey are and eventually be annexed to Israel. No mention of Jerusalem or the refugees.
As we have said many times: don’t listen to what Sharon says, look at what he is doing with hishands. Will he freeze the settlements, as demanded by the Road Map? Will he really stopbuilding in Ma’aleh Adumim, where hundreds of new houses are now planned? Will he stopbuilding the “separation wall”, whose purpose is to cut off large chunks of the West Bank? Willhe immediately remove the 60 settlement outposts that were build since he came to power? Willthe IDF get out of Area A and cease the closures and blockades of Palestinian towns andvillages?
Anything else would be a sham.
- The good and the bad . On the Palestinian side, something interesting has happened. Without anyone planning it, a game of “good cop, bad cop” has developed.
The Americans and Israelis have swallowed the fairy tale of the “bad Arafat”, that wasinvented by Ehud Barak in order to cover up his monumental failure. So as not to have to talk withthe evil Arafat, they have proclaimed that Abu Mazen is the incarnation of everything good andbeautiful.
The result: in order to strengthen his standing vis-a-vis Arafat, they are obliged to give AbuMazen things they refused to give Arafat. The Palestinian public gives qualified support toAbu Mazen and waits to see what he can get from Bush and Sharon. Abu-Mazen cannot move withoutArafat, but the results do not bind Arafat, who can always assert that he was not a partner to thedeal. An ideal situation for him.
From the Israeli point of view, this is idiotic. If we are negotiating and ready to pay theprice, wouldn’t it be better to do it with the person who can deliver the goods?
- A huge achievement . If the armed intifada ends, who can be said to have gained from the 32 months of bloody struggle?
The objective answer: it is a draw.
The Palestinians have suffered terribly. Their infrastructure has been destroyed. Theirdignity trampled on. Some 2000 men, women and children have been killed, tens of thousandsinjured, ten thousand put in prison. Their homes have been de, their trees uprooted, theirlivelihood destroyed. But their resistance has not been broken, it is as strong on the last dayas on the first.
The Israelis have suffered much less, but they, too, have suffered a lot. Some 800 Israeliskilled, hundreds wounded. Fear stalks the streets, the malls and the buses. Privatewatchmen, one hundred thousand of them, are everywhere. The intifada has cost us some 20billion dollars, the economy is in a deep crisis, there is no tourism and no foreigninvestment, the quality of life has gone down, the welfare state is collapsing, socialtensions are increasing. But the IDF continues to deal blows to the Palestinian populationand the settlement drive is in full swing.
The draw has created a mood of hopelessness on both sides. Both have come to the conclusion thatthere is no military solution.
But when there is a draw between two sides, one of which is a thousand times stronger than theother, it is a fantastic achievement for the weaker.
- What has been achieved ? What came out of Aqaba? What does the Road Map present?
The easy answer is: nothing substantial, only words, words, words.
But words, too, are important.
The Oslo agreement was disabled at birth because it did not spell out the final destination:the State of Palestine side-by-side with the State of Israel. The Road Map clearly definesthis aim, confirmed by the whole world and with the agreement of the most rightist governmentIsrael ever had. This is a big step forward, a point of no return.
The spokesman of the settlers has asserted that this is a “reward to the terrorists”. And,indeed, this is an achievement of the intifada . Without it, the Palestinians would have gotnothing.
The appearance of an inspection team (American, for now) is also very important. We havedemanded this for years. The era of deceit is drawing to an end.
The removal of outposts is important, too. Sure, it concerns only a few, which are, bythemselves, unimportant. But to quote again from one of the settlers: Even the removal of onesingle outpost breaks a national taboo. It proves that settlements can be removed; it createsa pattern, a precedent.
The Road Map does not say where the permanent borders between Israel and Palestine will be.That will be the issue for the next battle.
But we are moving forward. Perhaps only a small step. Perhaps a bigger one than it seems. Buteven in the most pessimistic view, this is a move in the right direction, towards the end of theoccupation, towards peace.
- Pray for the Road Map . This is the traditional “Prayer for the Road” for Jews who set out on a voyage (my translation):
“May it please you, our God and our fathers’ God,
To show us the way to peace,And to guide our steps towards this peace,And to direct our travelling in peace,That we may complete out journey to life, joy and peace,And be safeguarded from all enemies and dangers along the way,And from all the disasters native to this world…”