I find myself almost pitying George Bush, something I would not have held to be possible. Butthere you are…
He has had a lot of luck, George Bush. All the big opportunities fall into his lap. But somehow,it all goes wrong.
Somehow, “at the end of the day”, as the Americans like to say, everything falls apart.
When it seemed, at the beginning of his term, that everything was stuck, along came OsamaBin-Laden and blew up the Twin Towers. Riding on a huge wave of patriotic fervor, Bush attackedAfghanistan and conquered it with lightning speed, with almost no American casualties, onlywith smart bombs and suitcases full of dollars.
And then it went pear-shaped. Bin-Laden disappeared. The Taliban chief, too, is nowhere to befound. The country was taken over by gangs of warlords, resulting in total anarchy. The newdemocratic regime appointed by the Americans is governing one of Kabul’s neighborhoods,that’s all. Not a shining success.
But never mind. As you say in Hebrew: another place, another chance. Bush attacked Iraq inorder to eliminate the weapons of mass destruction, before they could be used against the USAand wipe it out. All the more necessary since Saddam Hussein, as the American people wereassured, was a close ally of Bin-Laden and international terrorism.
The military attack was successful beyond expectations. The Iraqi army just melted away. Themuch vaunted Republican Guard folded up before even seeing an American soldier. Smart bombsand suitcases full of money were enough. In the presence of fifty Iraqis and a hundredreporters, an American armored vehicle pulled down the statue of Saddam. All America saw itand was filled with pride. What a glorious victory!
And then, this time, too, everything went wrong. The celebrated American military hadomitted to plan for the day after. A terrible anarchy broke out. The mob plundered all theproperty of the Iraqi people and the whole infrastructure of society. Hospitals, banks,museums, government offices, water and electricity works – everything, but everything wasstolen or destroyed. Not a single screw was left in place.
As if that was not enough, the weapons of mass destruction did not materialize. After the USintelligence community told the world that they knew exactly where they were, what kinds ofbiological, chemical and nuclear agents, at what places and in what quantities – nothing. Nota single molecule, not a single microbe, not a single isotope. This means that all thestatements made to the people and the world were based on crude lies or wild speculation.Unpleasant.
The ominous connection between Saddam and Bin-Laden evaporated, too. Not a single bit ofevidence to that effect was found.
And Saddam himself also disappeared without trace, as if he had never existed. The country wasleft with anarchy and a bad taste in the mouth.
So what’s left? The Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
There the situation is the very opposite. The Americans wanted Arafat to disappear, likeBin-Laden, like Saddam. But he did not budge. He is there, and how! So is Hamas. So are thesuicide bombers.
The magic wand of George Bush, the peacemaker, lost its power. In one place Palestiniansuicide bombers, in another Israeli targeted killings. Daily headlines about people killed- children on both sides, women on both sides.
But Bush desperately needs a success. Therefore he decided to do as his predecessor had done:to intervene personally. After promising himself not to repeat the mistakes of Bill Clinton,he is now compelled to do exactly that.
Clinton threw the whole weight of the US presidency into the scale, in order to enter the pagesof history, or at least the list of Nobel Peace Price laureates. He decided to achieve peace inCamp David at any cost. He believed that Ehud Barak would really put on the table an incrediblygenerous offer. While being himself an accomplished liar [ see: Monika ], he believed thatBarak was telling the truth. He could not imagine that Barak was a liar of genius, in anotherleague altogether. “At the end of the day”, Clinton was booed off the stage, miserablyhumiliated.
His successor is now in danger of the same fate.
George Bush worships Ariel Sharon. He would have liked to be exactly like him: not a combatdodger but a war hero, not Daddy’s son but a self-made man, not the owner of a ranch for visitorsbut an authentic gentleman-farmer who built his ranch with his own hands.
George, it seems, believes Arik. When Arik proclaims his readiness for “painfulconcessions”, he believes him. When Arik announces his agreement to a Palestinian state, hebelieves him. When Arik accepts the Road Map, he believes him. When Arik seems ready toevacuate settlements and outposts, he believes him. When Arik promises to help Abu-Mazen, hebelieves him. He cannot imagine that Arik, his friend, his comrade, the upright soldier, willlook him in the eye and lie through his teeth.
But Ariel Sharon has no friends, and never had. He has no comrades, and never had. For Sharon,Bush is just another naive American, there to be cheated for the sacred cause of GreaterIsrael.
George Bush is a religious person. Once he was a confirmed alcoholic, but he has succeeded inexchanging alcohol for God. His friend Tony Blair is religious. His friend Vladimir Putinsays that he is religious. Sharon does not believe in the existence of God, but he does believethat God has promised the Holy Land to the children of Israel. So in Bush’s eyes, he is areligious person, too, and does not lie.
Sharon would not dream of really dismantling outposts, freezing settlements, agreeing toborders even remotely resembling the pre-1967 Green Line. As long as he is requested toproduce only words, all is well. When actions are expected, both Bush and Sharon will face ahard choice.
Sharon’s choice: to quarrel with Bush (and that would be a disaster, from his point of view) orto give up his historic mission (a much greater disaster, from his point of view.)
Bush’s choice: to fail again and go into the elections as a president who has failed ineverything, or to quarrel with Sharon and the entire pro-Israeli lobby, Jewish andEvangelical Christian – which is political poison.
But beyond all this, there is the fact that the most right-wing government Israel has ever hadhas officially accepted the establishment of a Palestinian state. Even if this is only atactic, even if the real purpose is to sabotage it, this is a point of no return.
The circle is now complete: the whole world has adopted the two-state vision, including theUnited States, the Arab world, the Palestinian people and the government of Israel.
This, I must admit, gives me some private satisfaction. 50 years ago, only a handful of usbelieved in this solution. The whole world was against it. Now this is a world-wide vision.With or without Bush, with or without Sharon, it is on its way.