When I visited Ramallah last, it wore a shining white frock. Even after days of sunshine, manyareas where still covered with snow that hid the ravages of the occupation, destruction andneglect.
I was driving slowly and enjoying the landscape, when I tensed instinctively. Through thecorner of my eye I saw a group of children. Something was hurled forcefully against mywindshield and landed with a bang. In the split of a second I relaxed: it wasn’t a rock but asnowball. I waved and they waved cheerfully back, in spite of my yellow Israeli licenseplates.
But that was the only light moment during this visit. I had come to ask Palestinian civicleaders about the dangers threatening the Palestinian population in case of an Americanattack on Iraq.
They had no illusions. The present Israeli political-military leadership includes groupsthat have been planning for a long time to exploit a war situation in order to do things whichcannot be done in ordinary times. The moral brakes that still exist in parts of the Israelipublic, as well as the expected international reaction, prevent the implementation of theseplans for the time being.
All this can change in a war situation. The attention of the world will be riveted to the battlein Iraq. In the Arab countries, chaos may prevail, diverting attention from the Palestinianterritories. The Israeli public, fearful of Saddam’s capabilities, will be (even) lesssensitive to the plight of the Palestinians.
What can happen?
The list is long, and every item is worse than the preceding one.
The first – and almost certain – act will be a prolonged closure and curfew in all the occupiedterritories. The Palestinians have a long and painful experience with these. It means thatfor days and weeks on end it will be impossible to get food and medicines into towns andvillages, especially to remote and isolated ones. This time, electricity may be completelycut off, cutting all connections with the outside world. Patients will not reach hospitalsfor ordinary treatment (dialysis and chemotherapy, for example) or emergency procedures(wounds, operations, births etc.). In many cases, this can literally be a matter of life anddeath.
Only some of these eventualities can be forestalled. For example, Villages can be helped tostock essential supplies in advance.
It is clear to the Palestinians that the war will give the occupation forces the opportunity tointensify even more the things which happen now every day: the execution of militants andothers, wholesale demolition of homes, uprooting of plantations. It is difficult to knowwhat new dimensions these can attain.
But there is one word that hovers over all the discussions: “transfer”.
In simple terms, “transfer” means the mass expulsion of the Palestinian people fromPalestine, as happened in 1948 and 1967. In the situation of 2003, that will be difficult. Thequestion will be: where to? Jordan will close its border and the mass expulsion ofPalestinians there would constitute an act of war against the Hashemite kingdom. It is hard toimagine the Americans allowing Sharon to do this while Jordan is serving as one of their basesin the war against neighboring Iraq. Expulsion to Lebanon is almost impossible withoutcreating a war-like situation on the northern border.
But there is another form of transfer: deportation from one part of the occupied territoriesto another. For example: deportation of the population from towns and villages adjacent tothe planned “separation wall” (Kalkilya, Tulkarm) to the central areas (Nablus).
That has already happened before. During the June 1967 war, Moshe Dayan emptied wholeneighborhoods of Kalkilya and drove their inhabitants on foot to Nablus. The demolition ofthe neighborhoods had already begun, when we succeeded in stopping it. (I exploited the factthat I was a member of the Knesset at the time and alerted several senior personalities.) Therefugees were allowed back and the neighborhoods rebuilt. (At the same time, manyinhabitants of Tulkarm were put on buses and brought to the Jordan bridges.)
Another example: many settlements on the West Bank are planning to grab adjacent areas. If thearmed settlers’ militias will terrorize near-by villages under the cover of the closure,they may cause a Deir Yassin-style mass flight.
It is common knowledge that many people in the military leadership are waiting impatientlyfor the opportunity to remove Yasser Arafar. Removing means killing, as nobody believes thatArafat will surrender without resistance. If the Americans want “regime change” in Iraq andare not hiding their intention of killing Saddam, why should Sharon be prevented from doingthe same?
The question is: will the Americans allow Sharon and his accomplices to do all this, or part ofit?
There can be no clear answer to that. Logic says no. The Americans will not want Israel todisturb their war. Even after the war, Washington will not want the Israeli-Palestinianconflict to flare up. The American military occupation of Iraq might last for many years, andany inflammation of the Arab world will be detrimental.
But America and logic are two different things. The group that is now in control in Washington –a mixed bag of Evangelical fundamentalists and Jews connected with the extreme right inIsrael – has a logic of its own. They may direct and even push Sharon to extremes.
It is, of course, clear that all the acts mentioned constitute war crimes under the GenevaConvention and other international laws. Some of them are crimes under Israeli law, too,being “manifestly illegal orders, over which a black flag is waving”, to quote an Israelilegal precedent. Participants in such actions may find themselves, some day in the future,before an international or national court. There is no statute of limitations.
But that is not the only reason for sounding a warning. Every one of these actions will be adisaster for Israel. If one believes that the long-term security and well-being of Israeldepend on Israeli-Palestinian peace and reconciliation between the two peoples of thiscountry, one has to do everything to prevent acts that will deepen the abyss of hatred betweenus. Things may happen that will destroy for generations any possibility of building a bridgeover the abyss, and turn the whole Arab and Muslim worlds against us forever.
Therefore, we should not rely on the Americans to stop Sharon. We, the Israelis, must doeverything – but everything! – to prevent such acts from taking place. I believe that this is apatriotic duty of the highest order.