The United States is about to be entangled in Afghanistan.
Gone is the idea that it is possible to vanquish the Taliban by aerial bombardment. Gone is theillusion that some tribal fighters, who were given the grandiose name of the “NorthernCoalition”, could put up a real fight, much as the Israelis lost the illusion that thePhalangists would really fight for them in Lebanon. Gone is the hope that local warlords wouldbetray the Taliban and join the Americans.
The Taliban can rely on three formidable sources of strength: tough Afghan patriotism thathas in the past beaten the British Empire and the Soviet superpower; extreme Islamicfanaticism; and the tribal loyalty of the Pashtun, the largest group in the country.
The very poverty of the mountainous country constitutes a forbidding obstacle to anyinvader. Afghanistan may turn out to be a second Vietnam. It may suck the American army in,causing it to sink into the morass of an exhausting war of attrition. The aim is too elusive,with no end in sight. And in the meantime Osama bin Laden – he or someone else of his kind – willexploit the growing sympathy for him in the Arab and Muslim world in order to commit more andmore severe acts of terrorism in the vulnerable United States.
In this situation, America will need even more to attract to its side the Arab masses and tofortify the pro-American Arab regimes that are needed for the war-coalition. That means:putting an end to the Israeli occupation that poisons the region and settling, once and forall, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
Arial Sharon has already shown that he is determined to sabotage this process. He openlychallenges the Bush administration and tells him: Let’s see who’ll blink first.
One could argue that this is direct help for the Taliban, spiking the wheels of the American warmachine at a critical time. Sharon doesn’t care. It is much more important for him to keep thesettlements where he put them and to prevent the establishment of the Palestinian State Bushspoke about.
Thus the Bush-Sharon contest joins the Bush-Taliban one. But perhaps the decisive contestwill take place in America itself: between Bush and the pro-Israel lobby.
This lobby is indeed a mighty force. It is enough to stay a few days in New-York and Washington togain a healthy respect for its potency. Just as an illustration: last week I took part, as anIsraeli peace-camp activist, in a press-conference arranged on Capitol Hill with theparticipation of members of Congress. The aim was to support the appeal by Israeli andAmerican-Jewish peace organizations urging the US government to come forward with aresolute peace initiative for the Middle East, as a part of the war against terrorism. Dozensof Congressmen and Congresswomen had promised to attend, but in the end only four gave theirsupport. The others were frightened off by the lobby.
When I got to the place, I was astounded by the number of reporters who were there. A battery of TVcameras was focused on the podium, the representatives of some of the most important media hadcome, too. The press conference itself was not enough for them, they stood around for a longtime afterwards, asking me questions.
The same thing happened the next day. At the Press Club, journalists from almost all theimportant American newspapers and newspaper-chains came and questioned me at length aboutour analyses and proposals.
What of all of this appeared in the media? You have guessed right: not a single word. The lobbyhas frightened the glorious, free American media, notwithstanding the fact that the subjectconcerns the basic national interest of their country at this critical juncture.
That is Bush’s real test: Does he have the guts to fight Sharon and his supporters in theCongress and the media?
When I visited the State Department on the same day, I found that people there were skeptical.They all understood where the essential interest of the United States lie, but not all wereconvinced that Collin Powell’s determined attitude would win the day.
If Bush remains steadfast, he will perceive that all over the United states new Jewish peacegroups have sprung up to challenge the lobby, demanding an American peace initiative. Thevoice of the Israeli peace movement is also attracting attention.
But at the end of the day, there remains a simple question: Is there enough political courage inWashington for the start of a peace initiative that will serve the national interests of theUnited States, as well as the real interests of Israel and Palestine?