Many years ago, I read a book called “ The Quiet American ” by Graham Greene. Itscentral character is a high-minded, naive young American operative in Vietnam. He has no ideaabout the complexities of that country but is determined to right its wrongs and create order.The results are disastrous.
I have the feeling that this is happening now in Lebanon. The Americans are not so high-mindedand no so naive. Far from it. But they are quite prepared to go into a foreign country, disregardits complexities, and use force to impose on it order, democracy and freedom.
Civil war: Lebanon. Lebanon is a country with a peculiar topography: a small country of highmountain ranges and isolated valleys. As a result, it has attracted throughout the centuriescommunities of persecuted minorities, who found refuge there. Today there are, side by sideand one against the other, four ethno-religious communities: Christians, Sunnis, Shiitesand Druse. Within the Christian community, there are several sub-communities, such asMaronites and other ancient sects, mostly hostile to each other. The history of Lebanonabounds in mutual massacres.
Such a situation invites, of course, interference by neighbors and foreign powers, eachwanting to stir the pot for its own advantage. Syria, Israel, the United States and France, theformer colonial master, are all involved.
Exactly 50 years ago a secret, heated debate took place among the leaders of Israel. DavidBen-Gurion (then Minister of Defense) and Moshe Dayan (the army Chief-of-Staff) had abrilliant idea: to invade Lebanon, impose on it a “ Christian major ” as dictatorand turn it into an Israeli protectorate. Moshe Sharett, the then Prime Minister, attackedthis idea fervently. In a lengthy, closely argued letter, which has been preserved forhistory, he ridiculed the total ignorance of the proponents of this idea in face of theincredibly fragile complexity of the Lebanese social structure. Any adventure, he warned,would end in disaster.
At the time, Sharett won. But 27 years later, Menachem Begin and Ariel Sharon did exactly whatBen-Gurion and Dayan had proposed. The result was exactly as foreseen by Sharett.
Anyone who follows the American and Israeli (there is no difference) media, gets theimpression that the present situation in Lebanon is simple: there are two camps, “ thesupporters of Syria ” on the one side, the “ opposition ” on the other.There is a “ Beirut Spring ” . The opposition is a twin sister of yesterday ‘;s Ukrainian opposition, and loyally imitates all its methods: demonstrations opposite thegovernment building, a sea of waving flags, colorful shawls, and, most importantly,beautiful girls in the front row.
But between the Ukraine and Lebanon there exists not the slightest similarity. The Ukraine isa – simple – country: the east tends towards Russia, the west towards Europe.With American help, the west won.
In Lebanon, all the diverse communities are in action. Each for its own interest, eachplotting to outfox the others, perhaps to attack them at a given opportunity. Some of theleaders are connected with Syria, some with Israel, all are trying to use the Americans fortheir ends. The jolly pictures of young demonstrators, so prominent in the media, have nomeaning if one does not know the community which stands behind them.
Only thirty years ago these communities started a terrible civil war and all of them massacredeach other. The Christian Maronites wanted to take over the country with the help of Israel,but were defeated by a coalition of the Sunnis and Druze (the Shiites played no significantrole at that time). The Palestinian refugees, led by the PLO, who formed a kind of fifth “community ” , joined the battle. When the Christians were in danger of being overrun,they called on the Syrians for help. Six years later, Israel invaded, with the aim of evictingboth the Syrians and the Palestinians and imposing a Christian strongman (Basheer Jumail).
It took us 18 years to get out of that morass. Our only achievement was to turn the Shiites into adominant force. When we entered Lebanon, the Shiites received us with showers of rice andcandies, hoping that we would throw out the Palestinians, who had been lording it over them. Afew months later, when they realized that we did not intend to leave, they started to shoot atus. Sharon is the midwife of Hizbullah.
It is difficult to foresee what will happen if the Syrians accede to the American ultimatum andleave Lebanon. There is no indication that the Americans are concerned with the creation of anew fabric of life for the Lebanese communities. They are satisfied with babbling about“ freedom ” and “ democracy ” , as if a majority vote could create aregime acceptable to all. They do not understand that “ Lebanon ” is an abstractnotion, since for almost all Lebanese, belonging to their own community is vastly moreimportant than loyalty to the state. In such a situation, even an international force will beof no help.
The re-ignition of the bloody civil war is a distinct possibility.
Civil war: Iraq. If a civil war breaks out in Lebanon, it will not be the only one in the region. InIraq, such a war – if almost secret – is already in full swing.
The only effective military forces in Iraq, apart from the occupation army, are the Kurdish“ Peshmerga ” ( “ Those who face death ” ). The Americans use themwhenever they are fighting the Sunnis. They played an important role in the battle of Faluja, abig town that was totally destroyed, its inhabitants killed or driven out.
Now the Kurdish forces are waging a war against the Sunnis and Turkmens in the north of thecountry, in order to take hold of the oil-rich areas and the town of Kirkuk, and also to drive outthe Sunni settlers who were implanted there by Saddam Hussein.
How can such a war be practically ignored by the media? Simple: everything is swept under thecarpet of the “ war against terrorism ” .
But this small war is nothing compared to what may happen in Iraq, once the time comes fordeciding the future of the country. The Kurds want complete autonomy, or independence byanother name. The Sunni would not dream of accepting the rule of the Shiite majority, whichthey despise, even if came about in the name of “ democracy ” . The outbreak of afull-fledged civil war may only be a question of time.
Civil war: Syria. If the Americans succeed, with our discreet help, in breaking the rulingSyrian dictatorship, there is no assurance at all that it will be replaced by freedom and democracy.
Syria is almost as splintered as Lebanon. There is a strong Druze community in the south, arebellious Kurdish community in the north, an Alawite community (to which the Assad familybelongs) in the west. The Sunni majority is traditionally divided between Damascus in thesouth and Aleppo in the north. The people have resigned themselves to the Assad dictatorshipout of fear of what may happen if the regime collapses.
It is not likely that a full-scale civil war will break out there. But a prolonged situation oftotal chaos is quite likely. Sharon would be happy, though I am not sure that it would be good forIsrael.
Religious fervor: Iran. The main American objective is, of course, the overthrow of theAyatollahs in Iran. (It is a little bit ironic that at the same time the Americans are helping toinstall the Shiites in power in neighboring Iraq, where they insist on introducing Islamiclaw.)
Iran is a much harder nut to crack. Unlike to Iraq, Syria and Lebanon, this is a homogenoussociety.
Israel is now openly threatening to bomb the Iranian nuclear installations. Every few days wesee on our TV screens the digitally blurred faces of pilots boasting of their readiness to dothis at a moment ‘; s notice.
The religious fervor of the Ayatollahs has been flagging lately, as happens with everyvictorious revolution after some time. But a military attack by the “ Big Satan- (the US) or the Little Satan (us) may set fire to the whole Shiite crescent:Iran, South Iraq and South Lebanon.
And here, too. Israel, too, has recently witnessed a tiny civil war.
In the Galilean village Marrar, where a Druze and an Arab Christian community have been livingside by side for generations, a bloody incident suddenly erupted. It was a full-fledgedpogrom: the Druze fell upon the Christians, attacking, burning and destroying. By a miracle,nobody was killed. The Christians say that the Israeli police (many of whose members areDruze) stood aside. The immediate reason for the outbreak: some doctored nude pictures on theInternet.)
It is easy to ignite a civil war, whether out of fanaticism or out of intolerable naivete.George Bush, the (not-so-)Quiet American, runs around the world hawking his patentmedicines, freedom and democracy, in total ignorance ofhundreds of years of history. Hard to believe, but he draws his inspiration from a book by ourown Nathan Sharansky, a very small genius, to say the least.
Every human being and every people has a right to freedom. Many of us have shed their blood forthis aim. Democracy is an ideal that every people has to realize for itself. But when thebanners of “freedom and democracy” are hoisted over a crusadeby an avaricious and irresponsible super-power, the results can be catastrophic.