Two boxers enter the ring. One is a heavy-weight champion, his opponent is a feather-weight.Everyone expects a knock-out at the beginning of the first round.
But, miraculously, the first round ends – and there is no knock-out. The second round ends – noknock-out. When the feather-weight is still standing up after the third and fourth round, itis clear that he is the true winner. Not by a knock-out, not even on points, but just because he isstill standing and fighting against such a formidable opponent.
This exemplifies the present confrontation between the IDF and the Palestinian people. Themighty Israeli army has not succeeded in breaking the backbone of the uprising. It has triedeverything – gunship helicopters, tanks, cannons, liquidations, destruction of wholeneighborhoods, closure, siege, demolition of homes, uprooting of plantations – and, in theseventh month, the Palestinians continue to stand on their feet and fight.
In this fight, the Sharon-Peres government enjoys the overwhelming support of the UnitedStates, which provides it with arms and money and exercises its veto in the Security Council onIsrael’s behalf. (Indeed, a European diplomat has said that Israel is in practice the fifthpermanent member of the Security Council with the veto power.) Europe does pay lip-service tothe Palestinians, but that’s all. The Arab regimes, which receive generous Americanhandouts, are also content with merely donating kind words to the Palestinians. In Israelitself, all the media are totally enlisted in the service of the government, there is no realopposition in the Knesset, and – apart from the small radical peace-forces, which areboycotted by the media – there is no protest.
If so, are the Palestinians helpless against the vast superiority of the Sharon-Peresgovernment? Not really. They pin their hopes on several factors.
First: the intifada itself. To the astonishment of the Israeli generals and commentators,the will of the Palestinian population has not broken, in spite of the terrible blows it issuffering. The economy has been demolished, life has become hell, but the entire Palestinianpublic supports the struggle.
Somebody has described the Israeli-Palestinian conflict as a “clash between anirresistible force and an immovable object”. The intifada has become a war of attrition. Insuch a war between occupier and occupied, the morale of the occupied is stronger, because he isfighting for his very existence. Napoleon said: “In war, moral considerations account forthree quarters, the balance of actual forces only for the other quarter.”
Israel, too, pays an immense price (nobody in Israel dares to calculate it), both in terms ofmoney and the great damage caused to the quality of the IDF. Nobody knows when fatigue willovercome the will of the Israeli people to go on with this useless struggle. It will probablyhappen before the Palestinian side raises its hands in surrender.
Second: the Arab masses. True, the Arab regimes are not ready to lift a finger for thePalestinians and they cannot afford to provoke the Americans, who keep them going with theirmoney. But the situation of the intellectuals and the masses is quite different. There thesympathy for the Palestinians is great.
This does not yet bother the kings and presidents. But if something were to happen that wouldinfuriate the masses in a way that would endanger the stability of their governments, thesituation would suddenly change completely. In all the Arab countries there are nationalistand Islamic opposition groups just waiting for such an opportunity. If Israel commits – evenby accident – an atrocity like the 1996 Kafr Kana incident or an outrage in the Haram al-Sharif(Temple Mount) area, an explosion would follow.
A few days ago I had a conversation with Yasser Arafat in Ramallah. I got the impression that hepins great hopes on Arab support. He pointed out that a million people had taken part in onedemonstration in Morocco, that for the first time a demonstration had been held in SaudiArabia (and a women’s demonstration at that!), and that even in distant Oman angrydemonstrations had taken place. It seems that everybody is waiting for Sharon to commit theact of brutality that will blow the situation sky-high.
Third: there is a limit even to the total American support for Sharon-Peres. From thePalestinian point of view, the Bush administration may be the worst ever. But it has a definitered line: the oil. If an explosion were to occur in the Arab world and the kings and presidentswere to send SOS messages to the White House, an American iron fist would descend on Sharon andCompany.
In the meantime, in the 29th week of the fight, there is no knock-out.