If one wants to understand why the Hamas is trying at this precise point in time to start again asuicide-bomber campaign against Israel, one should remember the story about the coachmanand his horse.
The coachman was troubled by the fact that his horse ate up a great part of his income. He decidedto get the horse used to eat less, but to do it cautiously. Every day he reduced the horse’sration by one straw. The experiment would undoubtedly have been crowned with success, if thehorse had not, unfortunately, broken down and died just on the day his ration reached the laststraw.
Ehud Barak is undertaking a similar experiment. Every day he “lowers the expectations” (hiscoinage) of the Palestinians. He should have long ago turned over 6.1% of the West Bankterritory. Without asking them, the way one throws a bone to a dog, he decided to give them someremote, worthless pieces of land. He does not even want to talk about the “third deployment”,which, as agreed, should have included all the West Bank, except “specified militarylocations”. At most, he is ready to give up one or two percent.*
- By the way, some commentators, even Palestinians, believe that the agreement also excludes Israeli settlements. The agreement does not say so.
And in the meantime, he reduces the territory every day. All over the West Bank land is beingconfiscated, but slowly, a dunam here, a dunam there. “Settlement blocs”, designed forannexation, expand slowly and steadily. Palestinians are evicted, here from some caves andhouses, there from some olive groves and fields.
Jewish Jerusalem expands, Arab Jerusalem shrinks. On Har Homa (Jebl Abu-Ghneim) a 48-floorshigh skyscraper is about to be erected, overlooking the Dome of the Rock in Jerusalem and theChristian holy places in Bethlehem. The hope of the Palestinians to get at least Abu-Dis, asproposed by Yossi Beilin, has been dashed. Beilin is now one of the chief apologists of Barak.
Until now, the experiment is succeeding. It seems that the Palestinians are ready to absorbeverything. They are busy quarreling among themselves, while the land is being drawn fromunder their feet. But the horse of Palestinian patience is dying.
In the Israeli media, somber-faced “experts” wonder whether Arafat has given the green lightto the suicide-bombers caught in Taibe village. But the green light is everywhere. From themain street of Ramallah to the remotest West Bank village, Palestinians are telling eachother: “This can’t go on. Arafat tries to convince the Israelis peacefully, but he is notgetting anywhere. The Hizbullah are proving tha Israel understands only the language ofviolence. Maybe we should give a chance to the crazies of Hamas.”
When such a mood gets around, attacks follow nearly automatically. Hamas is a politicalmovement, listening intently to the public heartbeat. It was not only Asrafat’s securityorganizations that have prevented attacks until now, but also the fact that most of thePalestinians want calm, open borders and work in Israel. When more and more Palestiniansbecome convinced that the calm leads only to disaster, it will end.
The chiefs of Israeli army intelligence are publicly warning that without a resumption of thenegotiations, renewed suicide attacks must be expected. Some foresee a new, expandedIntifada. But generals always think about the last war, not about the next one. Neither terrorattacks nor Intifada will hold the stage in the next round of the Israeli-Palestinianconflict.
Let’s look at another scenario: Some sunny morning in the summer of 2000 the radio willannounce that the Palestinian armed forces have occupied Abu-Dis and fortified it. The HQwill be located in the new “parliament” building, overlooking the Haram al-Sharif (TempleMount) and the Christians holy places in Bethlehem.
What next? The IDF will quickly surround the small town. TV teams from all over the world willrush to the scene and broadcast the blockade live, with the golden Dome of the Rock featuring inevery picture. Sooner or later a shot will ring out, and the Battle of Abu-Dis will begin.
Of course, the Palestinians cannot win the battle militarily, but they will win itpolitically and morally. Even if they will be killed to the last man — and perhaps especiallyso — the battle will electrify the world and Palestinian history will gain its Stalingrad.
That was the method of Garibaldi, the Italian freedom-fighter, who was so much admired by theZionist extremists, Vladimir (Ze’ev) Jabotinsky and Menachem Begin. If they were alive,they would have told Barak: Beware!
Palestinian patience is running out. The horse is nearing the last straw.