Alive? Dead? Dying? Flopping? Many doctors surround the bedside of theOslo Accords and proffer their learned opinions. I can calm their fears.Oslo is alive — alive and kicking.
The most important historical event which took place five years ago is notthe Oslo Accord itself, but rather the letter exchange which precededit. The Prime Minister of Israel had recognized theexistence.
according to the PLO) this revolutionary breakthrough took place. Itchanged the world view of millions of people on both sides. Oncecreated, it could not be undone. It exists.
The Accords created a new reality in the region. The PalestinianAuthority was established on Palestinian soil. Its sovereign territoryis minuscule (Region “A” is something like 3% of the territory), but thevast majority of the Palestinian population of the Gaza Strip and the WestBank lives there. The Palestinian Authority has nearly all ofthe attributes of a sovereign state, according to theaccepted international standards.
Despite the tremendous difficulties facing this state-in-the-making –the kind of difficulties that no other entity in similar circumstanceshas been known to survive — this state is developing. It has experienceddemocratic elections, not exercised by any other Arab state. Itsinstitutions are functioning, which is a miracle, given the extremehardships under which this is happening. It is undergoing fierce internalstruggles for the character of its society and the nature and quality ofits government, and this, too, is a healthy sign.
The Palestinian State is a fait accompli. There is not a single seriousofficer in the IDF who wishes to reconquer Gaza, Ramallah and Nablus, andeven it this were to happen, the Palestinian state would go on as anoccupied and fighting state. All the Israeli opinion pollsindicate that there is a great majority consensus that no peace ispossible without the establishment of a full-fledged Palestinianstate side by side with Israel.
In this respect, Oslo is alive. But only in thisrespect.
Palestinians are the occupied, therefore they have littleto give.
If the Accords had been fulfilled to the letter, the situation todaywould look as follows: Israel would have already withdrawn from theentire West Bank and the Gaza Strip, excluding “specific militarylocations”; the Palestinian Authority would be fullyfunctioning in almost the entire West Bank and the Gaza Strip; therewould have been free passage between the West Bank and theGaza Strip for people and goods; the port andairport in Gaza would have been long in use; the negotiations overthe status of Jerusalem, the borders, refugees and the settlementswould have been at its height, heading towards a resolution in May of1999.
None of these have been implemented, and there is no pointin arguing about the excuses and tricks. Instead, theIsraeli-Palestinian war is going on in almost every area. As far asgeneral attitude is concerned, the mentality of the conflict is backwere it was, controlling the language of most of theleadership, the media and the public. In the occupied territories,there is a daily struggle for every acre of land in hundreds ofsites. And the reality is fixed by one side through the spread ofsettlements, land confiscations, house demolitions, building ofbypass roads, detaining of “security-risk prisoners”, expulsion ofArabs from Jerusalem, the strangling of the Palestinian economy,enforcing curfews, etc., and by the other side through occasionalacts of violence.
On the face of it, everything is dead. There are no real negotiations.Netanyahu’s government has no intention to fulfill the accords, and it isfree of any pressure. President Clinton and his government areabrogating their duties in a shameful manner.
But in our region, there is no such thing as a static situation. In thewords of the Greek Heraklitos, “Everything flows.” One can constructa dam on a river and create the illusion of still waters — but the stillwaters gather energy and with time will destroy the dam and rush out in abig flood. Perhaps this will happen on May 4th, 1999, when thePalestinians officially declare their statehood, at the expiration of theOslo Accords. Perhaps it will happen even sooner.
It seems that since Rabin’s assassination we are moving backwards. Butthis is merely an optical illusion. Nothing moves backwards in history.Everything moves forward. Always.
Oslo opened a new chapter in the history of both peoples. It created a newreality. Anything that happens from now on will take place in this newreality. For better or for worse.