1.1.2005
Before the Next Catastrophe
Let’s imagine for a moment that the huge tidal waves had hit the western
shores of Europe, that more than a hundred thousand English, Irish, Dutch,
Belgian, French, Spanish and Portuguese had fallen victim to the tsunami, and that
the east coast of the United States had also suffered.
How the world would have sprung into action! How the governments would
have been galvanized! What huge sums of money would have materialized
within hours to save what could be saved and prevent the epidemics that
threatened millions!
But it did not happen in
Was this bound to happen?
The earthquake could not have been prevented and sufficient warning of
it could not have been given. But the moment an earthquake under the sea was registered,
the tsunami was to be expected. When it started its amok race across the ocean,
there was enough time to warn more distant shores. After all, a few minutes
were enough for tens of thousands to run to higher ground or climb to higher
floors. Such a warning was not given.
Mankind has reached the moon. Spaceships explore far-away stars.
Billions upon billions have been invested in these efforts. But the human
genius is not sufficient to save hundreds of thousands of human beings from
such a natural disaster.
It can always be argued that this is wisdom after the fact. But where
are the experts whose job is precisely to warn of dangers before they arrive?
The media are full of stories about experts who slept on their watch, about monitoring-centers
that received a warning in time and did not transmit it to where it was needed,
about scientific institutes that were shut down for the weekend and therefore
could give no warning, about the lack of a minimal emergency communications
system for such contingencies.
We
are told that on the shores of the Pacific the situation is better as far as
this specific danger is concerned, After all, “tsunami”
is a Japanese word (a combination of “harbor” and “wave”). Are the
shore-dwellers of other seas less privileged?
The
reaction of the Western world was scandalous.
The
British Prime Minister, Tony Blair, continued to enjoy his holiday in
And indeed, the practical responses were ludicrous. Within a few hours
it was already evident that many billions were needed to save, prevent disease and
rebuild. Washington donated one million, then 15 million, then increased that
to all of 35 million – less than the bill for President Bush’s second
inauguration party. (Later, under pressure, this was increased tenfold.) The
All
this together was not even a drop in the ocean – perhaps an unfortunate metaphor
these days.
One can try to excuse this with the shock that overcame the world during
the first few days. It took time for the political system in the countries of
the world to grasp the full extent of the catastrophe. Television, a medium
that is especially suited to such situations, brought the pictures into every
home, activating public opinion and exerting pressure on the politicians. But
even this was not enough to ensure a suitable response. Especially as the media
concentrated in a few accessible areas, but did not reach the hundreds of other
affected places in remoter regions. This created a completely false image of
the extent of the assistance; tear-jerking stories were broadcast instead of reports
on the real situation.
It
can be argued that there is no way to foresee a catastrophe of such huge dimensions
and be prepared for its coming. That may be true. But the world was not even ready
for a disaster on a much smaller scale.
Some years ago, after the big earthquake near
I
called for the setting up of a standing force, with a General Staff and a chain
of command, that would be able to respond to a major disaster within hours and to
mobilize within a matter of days all that is necessary for dealing with a large
international catastrophe.
What
is needed for this purpose is a permanent staff in perpetual readiness, 24 hours
a day, every day of the year. This staff must have at its command rescue forces
in many countries that can spring into action on very short notice. It must be
able to provide the logistic infrastructure for rushing in aid by air, land and
sea, even when the disaster destroys airports, roads and harbors. It must be
able to call on trained teams of experts for rescue work and logistics, as well
as medical staff. It must have access to dedicated resources that are available
at short notice. If all this is ready in advance, massive rescue and aid operations
could be set in motion within hours and scaled up in the following days as
necessary.
Such a body could also coordinate a world-wide warning system for
natural disasters of various forms, using all available means, including satellites,
and ensure that the warnings reach the threatened population in time.
The International Force would not replace the voluntary aid
organizations that are doing a wonderful job. It must function as the command
and mobilization center, ready to act immediately.
Such
a force could contribute something to the unity of mankind. A large-scale disaster
unifies nations and moderates conflicts, as can be seen this week. I believe
that the creation of an International Rescue Force can constitute a step in the
direction of world-wide cooperation.
My proposal aroused some positive reaction but ran immediately into the reflexive
opposition of the international bureaucracy. At the United Nations, somebody declared
in an injured tone that there was already a group of officials in charge of this
matter etc. etc. Nothing, of course, was done. This week we saw the
consequences – days passed before the first significant aid operations started
rolling, and they were on a pitifully inadequate scale compared with the
disaster itself. But on TV, well-groomed bureaucrats in suits and ties explained
that everything was being done according to established procedure.
The International Rescue Force must be set up in order to be ready for
the next catastrophe. To command it, an authoritative personality should be
appointed, a person with imagination, mental agility, organizational talent and
a penchant for improvisation. We have such people in
As before, mankind can be satisfied once again with clicking the tongue
and with actions whose sole purpose is to do the very minimum – and forget the
whole business within a few days.